Darwin tips and results

Our price $2.80 · SP $3.40 · W R Davis

Flash Kermy maps as the controlling factor. Five placings from eight starts show consistency. The class rise is real but the map advantage and proven local time make her the most likely winner.

Our price $6.00 · SP $4.20 · Jessica Booth

With a 560m run to the first turn softening the wide draw at this trip, that looks an overlay against a genuine claim.

Our price $3.00 · SP $2.60 · Dakota-Lee Gillett

Romantic Love is the only runner with a Fannie Bay 1200m win on record and holds a 6:2-0-1 distance profile. Barrier 1 and early-speed rank 3 give him the box seat behind Southampton Flare in a moderately run sprint. The jockey booking is the clear weakness and caps confidence rather than eliminating the case.

Our price $3.80 · SP $4.20 · J R Todd

Consistent, in form and dropping in class with the meeting's best rider aboard. The reservations are real though: 62kg topweight and a first attempt at 1200m after two miles.

Our price $4.60 · SP $5.50 · W R Davis

Genuine claims on class relief - she has been competing in Restricted 70 and Open grade and drops sharply here, with a track record of 12 starts for 3 wins and 3 seconds plus a win at this course and distance. The concerns are tactical and human: she is mapped to settle back in a race predicted to run slow, carries 2.5kg more than last start, and her rider is winless from his past 20. Each-way claims, prefer her at the placings.

Our price $4.80 · SP $5.00 · Jessica Booth

The value angle is the weight turnaround. He was set an impossible task at 60kg over 1200m last start and finished 11th, but that came three weeks after he won here over 1100m. Today he gets in on 55.5kg with a 2kg claim, drops to 1000m where his rank-1 early speed should have him prominent from gate 5, and races at a track where he is 6:1-1-1.

Our price $4.60 · SP $6.00 · Dakota-Lee Gillett

Distance record of 2 starts for 2 wins and barrier 2 on an inside-favouring circuit are strong positives. The genuine tempo up front suits his midfield pattern. The 60kg topweight and a lightly performed rider are the reservations that keep him second rather than first.

Our price $6.50 · SP $7.50 · Deborah Barton

The weight-relief runner. Shirshov has been beaten but never disgraced in three Open-class assignments at Fannie Bay this preparation, and now drops sharply in grade carrying just 55.5kg with the claim. His distance record of 21 starts for 4 wins, 3 seconds and 2 thirds confirms 1000m suits, and the pace map has him third on the fence-side speed. The blank track record and modest recent strike rate temper enthusiasm, but at the weights he is a genuine placing hope.