Punt like a Pro, without the know!
Victoria · Saturday 29 August 2026
Our top pick won 1 of 7 races at Warracknabeal. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
top pick wonanother tip wonno tip won
The most reliable runner in a volatile maiden. His distance record of 3 starts for 2 placings underlines suitability at the mile, and his forward pattern from barrier 8 fits a track and surface that clearly rewards on-pace runners.
Second up with winkers added and the in-form Meech aboard, the profile is right. Sound each-way, poor value to win.
Solid third leg. He led throughout to finish half a length away on Heavy 8 at Casterton, so the wet ground holds no fear, and from barrier 6 he sits in the forward group the Warracknabeal Soft data favours. Consistency is the concern, not ability.
The overlay.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Habitual | 5 | Ms L J Meech | Ms M Lawson | 59.5kg | $2.35 |
| 2nd | 3 | Koyuga Rip | 8 | Tom Madden | Annalise Maragos | 59.5kg | $2.70 |
| 3rd | 8 | Massalia | 9 | Jack Hill | Brady Cross | 57.5kg | $41.00 |
| 4th | 10 | Staff Writer | 1 | Ms C Puls | Luke Williams | 57.5kg | $61.00 |
| 5th | 7 | Julep | 7 | Chelsea Thompson | Taige Weir | 54.5kg | $19.00 |
| 6th | 13 | Ideas Galore | 12 | Toby Atkinson | Patrick Payne | 57.5kg | $71.00 |
| 7th | 5 | Numbersneverseen | 6 | W Gordon | Patrick Payne | 59.5kg | $12.00 |
| 8th | 4 | Los Bravos | 3 | M Aitken | Tom Dabernig | 59.5kg | $20.00 |
| 9th | 1 | Black Hex | 11 | V Le Boeuf | Tammy Birnie | 59.5kg | $41.00 |
| 10th | 11 | Hegseth | 10 | Teodore Nugent | E & D Browne | 57kg | $6.50 |
| 11th | 14 | Grandstraz | 2 | Sarah Robbins | Rodney Foster | 57.5kg | $151.00 |
| 12th | 9 | Pretty Pnina | 4 | R J Hurdle | V L Malady | 57.5kg | $91.00 |
| Scr | 6 | Gasoline Rainbow | 14 | Symon Wilde | 57.5kg | ||
| Scr | 12 | King Leonidas | 2 | E & D Browne | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 15 | Marron | 9 | E Jusufovic | 59.5kg |
The most credible formline in the race.
She is not the top pick because her running style collides directly with the track profile: Warracknabeal sprints on Soft reward on-pace runners and deep closers win under 2%, with only a 210m straight to finish in. Add a 207-day let-up, a lone soft run where stewards queried the going, and nine starts without winning.
Assessed on the debutant proxy framework rather than penalised for absent form. The Moody/Coleman stable is comfortably the strongest represented here, the Zac Spain association is a genuine 175-ride partnership at 9%, and barrier 10 lands in the only band producing winners at Warracknabeal under Soft. The Shamardal-line pedigree suits wet ground even if 1200m may be short of ideal.
The overlay of the race. Her Goulburn third on Soft 6, racing second throughout, is the template. The Kembla flop came with interference at the 200m and can be forgiven.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 6 | Oceanella | 8 | Teodore Nugent | Simon Zahra | 57.5kg | $5.00 |
| 2nd | 11 | Victor's Pavilion | 10 | Zac Spain | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 57kg | $9.50 |
| 3rd | 5 | Cool Aza Breeze | 5 | Zac Moore | C Maher | 55kg | $41.00 |
| 4th | 1 | Comradeship | 1 | Alana Kelly | E Jusufovic | 59.5kg | $7.00 |
| 5th | 12 | Little Ally Bama | 9 | Ms L J Meech | Andrew Bobbin | 55kg | $31.00 |
| 6th | 4 | Brazen Queen | 7 | Tom Madden | D I Dodson | 57.5kg | $61.00 |
| 7th | 17 | Valorada | 11 | Logan McNeil | Claire Patterson | 57.5kg | $101.00 |
| 8th | 7 | Regal Time | 3 | Chelsea Thompson | Raharna McDonald | 54.5kg | $41.00 |
| 9th | 13 | Gradivus | 4 | M Aitken | Andrew Bobbin | 57kg | $26.00 |
| 10th | 9 | Dubai Prayer | 6 | Melea Castle | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 57kg | $13.00 |
| 11th | 2 | Nicaloha | 2 | Jack Hill | Rachel Samsonenko | 59.5kg | $3.40 |
| 12th | 10 | Khadira | 12 | W Gordon | E & D Browne | 57.5kg | $3.70 |
| Scr | 3 | Rambition | 16 | Barry Ainsworth | 59.5kg | ||
| Scr | 8 | Classic Harry | 14 | Anthony Cosgriff | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 14 | Prince Prestigious | 11 | Tom Dabernig | 59.5kg | ||
| Scr | 15 | Rousley | 13 | E Jusufovic | 57.5kg | ||
| Scr | 16 | Helichrysum | 16 | P A Krelle | 57.5kg |
The most exposed and most reliable runner in a maiden full of unknowns. With 52kg after the claim and a fresh 11-day back-up, she should be hard to run down.
Dropping back to maiden grade with 55kg she should be prominent. The reservations are practical rather than about ability: 139 days between runs, an unnamed rider, and a settling position that fights the track's pronounced on-pace sprint bias.
The overlay of the race. Second up she should be sharper, she carries just 55kg, and the map has her tracking the speed at a venue where on-pace runners dominate sprints.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Honour The Bassett | 4 | Zac Spain | P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 57kg | $1.80 |
| 2nd | 12 | What Once Was | 5 | Chelsea Thompson | L Smith | 52kg | $4.20 |
| 3rd | 8 | Celestaria | 3 | Ms C Puls | Henry Dwyer | 55kg | $5.50 |
| 4th | 7 | Stomping Ground | 6 | Tom Madden | E & D Browne | 57kg | $31.00 |
| 5th | 9 | Cool Victory | 7 | Ms A Herrmann | M & L Cerchi | 55kg | $41.00 |
| 6th | 1 | Set Boom | 8 | Alana Kelly | D J Cannon | 59.5kg | $101.00 |
| 7th | 3 | Box Craft | 2 | Ms L J Meech | Tom Dabernig | 57kg | $6.00 |
| 8th | 4 | Circus Prince | 1 | V Le Boeuf | Anthony Cosgriff | 57kg | $101.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Little Medusa | 12 | Symon Wilde | 57.5kg | ||
| Scr | 6 | Prestige Hellbent | 6 | M M Laurie | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 10 | Money Honey | 5 | Andrew Bobbin | 55kg | ||
| Scr | 11 | Piekna | 9 | Simon Zahra | 55kg |
The most predictable runner in a volatile Restricted 56. She won this precise race — Warracknabeal, 1000m, Restricted 56, Soft 6 — a fortnight ago, leading throughout and holding Flying Straz. Her wet form is solid and the 2kg rise is manageable given she is race fit at a 14-day turnaround.
Second up now, drawn barrier 2 with 55kg, she is a definite winning chance if the pace is honest. The reservations are real: one win from 21 starts, a jockey without a strike rate at the track and a map that has her giving the leader a start on a lead-biased circuit.
A reliable, fit type who maps beautifully on a lead-biased circuit — early-speed rank 2, settling second, carrying the minimum 54kg. His last-start third at Murtoa was solid and June produced two beaten-a-length seconds at this class over 1000m on wet ground. The problem is conversion: four wins from fifty starts and no win at this track from five tries. He is a strong place proposition rather than a genuine winning threat, and the jockey booking does not add confidence.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Simply Luscious | 6 | Sarah Field | Nathan Hobson | 56.5kg | $3.10 |
| 2nd | 8 | Flying Straz | 2 | V Le Boeuf | Rodney Foster | 55kg | $7.00 |
| 3rd | 6 | Grumpyoldcol | 4 | Tom Madden | Rachel Samsonenko | 56kg | $9.50 |
| 4th | 10 | The Last Judgement | 5 | Teodore Nugent | Ms H Burns | 54kg | $7.00 |
| 5th | 9 | Charming Di | 1 | Samantha Noble | S G Noble | 54.5kg | $13.00 |
| 6th | 1 | Old Time Rock | 3 | W Gordon | A J Clarken | 60kg | $2.50 |
| 7th | 7 | Ain't Tellin | 7 | Sarah Robbins | Brendon Newport | 55kg | $91.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Pull My Finger | 5 | Amy & Ash Yargi | 60kg | ||
| Scr | 3 | El Salto | 9 | L E Robertson | 59kg | ||
| Scr | 5 | Just Like Lisa | 3 | Margaret Collett | 57kg |
Her 2-from-7 soft record and 3-from-8 distance record confirm the conditions suit. The 2kg penalty and gate 9 are real, but she is the only runner with a winning formline at this track, distance and grade in the current preparation. Clear top pick.
Adki is the race's control runner and the Warracknabeal Soft profile screams on-pace, with leaders winning a third of races and backmarkers none. Gate 11 and a total absence of a finishing sprint are the limiters, so place is the play.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Chosen Venture | 7 | Chelsea Taylor | Nathan Hobson | 58kg | $7.00 |
| 2nd | 4 | Artpark | 9 | Melissa Julius | P A Preusker | 57.5kg | $3.70 |
| 3rd | 2 | Owl Witness | 1 | Jack Martin | C V Kelly | 59.5kg | $12.00 |
| 4th | 1 | Moral Turpitude | 6 | Melea Castle | Erin Maher | 59.5kg | $9.00 |
| 5th | 7 | Nicking Gracie | 5 | Teodore Nugent | Robert Palm | 55.5kg | $10.00 |
| 6th | 6 | Adki | 11 | Ms A Herrmann | M & L Cerchi | 55.5kg | $3.60 |
| 7th | 9 | Deploy And Destroy | 8 | Chelsea Thompson | Ms H J Smith | 51kg | $61.00 |
| 8th | 5 | Chelsea Toff | 4 | W Gordon | V L Malady | 57.5kg | $13.00 |
| 9th | 10 | Time Ruler | 3 | Sarah Robbins | Brendon Newport | 54kg | $21.00 |
| 10th | 8 | Fugacity | 10 | V Le Boeuf | Rodney Foster | 54kg | $10.00 |
| 11th | 11 | Masina | 2 | Sarah Field | Jordy Coffey | 52.5kg | $101.00 |
| Scr | 12 | Drover's Yarn | 9 | Bryan Dowsett | 54kg |
The most complete form profile in the race. Jockey is the query, form is not.
A class horse who has lost his way but is well placed here. The recent record is unattractive but the Murtoa run had stewards commenting on the ride, and Meech - riding at 30% over her last 20 and 16% at this track - is a meaningful upgrade. Sixteen soft-track starts confirm he handles the going.
Her wet record is the best here, with two wins and three placings from six heavy starts plus a soft-track win, and she is well in at 54.5kg with the 3kg claim from gate one.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Tikemyson | 9 | Ms L J Meech | Symon Wilde | 58.5kg | $7.00 |
| 2nd | 10 | Nicoffhome | 3 | Alana Kelly | Chris Calthorpe | 56kg | $12.00 |
| 3rd | 6 | Dartboard | 2 | Jack Hill | Brady Cross | 58kg | $7.50 |
| 4th | 1 | Black Peppermint | 7 | Jack Martin | Patrick Payne | 61.5kg | $4.00 |
| 5th | 4 | Aristonous | 4 | Teodore Nugent | Trent Edmonds | 58kg | $3.10 |
| 6th | 12 | Heart's Embrace | 5 | Sarah Field | Andrew Bobbin | 52.5kg | $71.00 |
| 7th | 7 | Spylark | 1 | Jade Smith | Dane Smith | 54.5kg | $31.00 |
| 8th | 8 | Verona Rupes | 6 | W Gordon | Taige Weir | 57.5kg | $5.00 |
| 9th | 2 | Stormsarrived | 10 | Logan McNeil | L J Cadzow | 61.5kg | $101.00 |
| 10th | 5 | Blacklist | 8 | Chelsea Taylor | Nathan Hobson | 58kg | $21.00 |
| Scr | 9 | Salsita | 8 | E & D Browne | 57kg | ||
| Scr | 11 | Mickio | 9 | M J Enright | 55.5kg |
He is light, fit and drawn in the band that suits the mile here. But he has won once in eighteen starts, has no second-up placings from three attempts, is barely tested on soft ground, and maps to lead in a race where leaders win under 7%.
His record here reads a second and a fourth over this distance, and his wet-track profile is genuine across both soft and heavy going. The concerns are real: 60kg again, barrier 12 again, and a modest strike rate from 46 starts. But he is fit, consistent and clearly to a level. Sound place claims.
Thoughtful won over this precise course, distance, grade and going a fortnight ago, sitting third the whole way and holding on. That is the template Warracknabeal rewards under Soft conditions, where on-pace runners win at 20% and backmarkers at under 4%. His last four runs are all placings or a win, every one within a length. Barrier 1 and Tom Madden's retention are further positives. The 2kg rise to 60kg is the only genuine query and it is not enough to turn me off.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Surfy Pete | 3 | Ms L J Meech | P A Preusker | 60kg | $3.50 |
| 2nd | 1 | Mr George | 6 | W Gordon | D I Dodson | 60kg | $8.50 |
| 3rd | 8 | Dusty's Deel | 9 | Zac Moore | Jess Gleeson | 55kg | $3.60 |
| 4th | 6 | Tyndrum Gold | 2 | Logan McNeil | Nathan Hobson | 59.5kg | $26.00 |
| 5th | 11 | Makusha | 4 | Melissa Julius | R G Symons | 56kg | $11.00 |
| 6th | 10 | Allegedly | 1 | R J Hurdle | Ms E Hubbard | 57.5kg | $11.00 |
| 7th | 5 | Hydrogen Power | 5 | Chelsea Taylor | Nathan Hobson | 59.5kg | $8.50 |
| 8th | 12 | Party At Artie's | 7 | Teodore Nugent | Chris Calthorpe | 54.5kg | $11.00 |
| 9th | 9 | Elphaba | 8 | Alana Kelly | D J Cannon | 57.5kg | $11.00 |
| 10th | 7 | Danzagrunt | 10 | Jack Martin | Jordy Coffey | 58kg | $71.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Solar Mist | 11 | Jack Hill | C V Kelly | 60kg | |
| Scr | 4 | Thoughtful | 1 | Tom Madden | Nell Carter | 60kg | |
| Scr | 13 | Smart Elissim | 11 | A R Coffey | 54kg | ||
| Scr | 14 | Ovabent | 14 | Dane Smith | 54kg |
Before the races, not after
Our top three picks and a value pick for every race, with assessed prices, speed maps and the analysis behind them. Free for 7 days.