Kembla Grange tips and results

Our price $11.00 · SP $71.00 · Ms J Taylor

A genuine overlay in a race where nothing has won. Watch Me Tango was beaten only half a length at Sapphire Coast when crowded late, and her Kembla failure came over 1200m which is patently short of her requirements. Each-way value.

Our price $3.80 · SP $2.45 · K S Latham

Adaptation has the ideal draw and map, an in-form jockey and a strong metropolitan stable, and the return to a mile after two short-of-trip runs is a genuine positive. He rates a clear top-three chance and is the safest place proposition in the race, but not the best win value.

Our price $6.00 · SP $13.00 · C Lever

The most proven runner in a shallow maiden. Barrier 3 is a marked improvement on gate 11 last time here, and a fast tempo suits a horse who finishes off strongly rather than sprinting. Lacks the winning knack but is the safest proposition.

Our price $8.00 · SP $8.00 · G Buckley

A debutant with the best recent trial in the race, winning at Rosehill over 900m only eight days ago after a clear pattern of improvement across three heats. Blinkers first time signals the stable expects her to be sharp on debut. Barrier 6 places her in the most productive draw band for Kembla sprints and lets her sit in the first six at the 400m, which is where this track's winners come from. Inexperience over 1200m is the only real reservation.

Our price $9.00 · SP $11.00 · Ms L Day

An honest mare who has been repeatedly unlucky. She has 4 thirds from 10 starts and now steps up to 1200m for the first time, which should suit a mare whose runs are finishing off.

Our price $5.50 · SP $2.80 · Ms R Freeman

Solid, honest track form. Duck For Cover was third over this exact course and distance a fortnight back after leading throughout and only being run down late, and is now second up with fitness on his side and a class drop in his favour. The Kembla record of 3 starts for a win and a third is the best local profile in the race. The barrier is the problem: from 12 he must either burn petrol crossing or race wide, and with August Rush also going forward the tempo could compromise him. Solid place claims.

Our price $4.20 · SP $5.50 · C Lever

The strongest genuine form line in the race. Beaten a nose in an identical Class 1 over 1400m at Newcastle a fortnight ago after settling sixth, having already won at Kembla Grange in April. That run beats every maiden formline in this field on merit. Second-up he should be fitter again, the Good 4 is his best surface, and Lever knows the horse and the track.

Our price $9.00 · SP $8.50 · K S Latham

The last racing run reads badly but came with a stewards note about the rider being concerned with her action, which explains it away. Latham is in career-best form, is 1 from 1 on her, and the barrier 4 midfield map is ideal. Clear each-way overlay.

Our price $3.00 · SP $1.75 · Izzy Neale

Four wins from six starts, including his last two, and his 1400m Newcastle win under 59.5kg reads well above BM64 level. He does his best work from midfield with a strong closing burst, which suits the projected moderate tempo with Spiritualistic and Satness contesting the lead. Barrier 11 is the only genuine concern and class rise is modest. The 41% Neale/Singleton combination signals stable intent.

Our price $6.00 · SP $19.00 · R Hutchings

Two of her three wins have come at 1400m and she was run down by a nose leading at Hawkesbury last start. The obvious caveat is a bare Good-track record of 4:0-0-0 with all wins on Heavy, and she has folded when hassled before. With only Satness likely to press early, she should get a soft enough lead to be very hard to run down late.

Our price $8.00 · SP $18.00 · Brock Ryan

Satness is a Kembla Grange specialist with 6 wins and 8 placings from 32 starts there, including a BM68 win over this exact course and distance on Good 4 in February. He was beaten only half a length first-up over an unsuitably short 1200m here three weeks ago and the step to 1400m is a clear positive.

Our price $6.50 · SP $14.00 · Ms R Freeman

Her distance record of 6:2-1-1 confirms 1400m is her trip, and at just 55kg with barrier 7 she maps perfectly midfield for a moderate tempo.

Our price $6.50 · SP $10.00 · Pierre Boudvillain

Her Kembla record of 13 starts for two seconds and two thirds confirms suitability, and a predicted settle around 4th places her in the track's most productive band. The slow tempo suits a forward-midfield type more than the outright backmarkers.

Our price $3.20 · SP $2.35 · R Hutchings

The significant grade drop and a winning second-up record are strong positives.