Wanganui tips and results

Our price $3.40 · SP $6.40 · C R Barnes

Unmistakable is the only runner with race experience, though it is poor form. She is expected to find the lead in a race with just one genuine speed and a slow tempo, which is a significant edge on Heavy ground. However, her two 13th placings and long first-up spell make her a place/win threat rather than the top pick.

Our price $5.00 · SP $6.80 · K A Myers

The Lowry/Zydenbos stable is a positive, and Myers has struck at 13% with the combination. Gate 5 is a useful Wanganui sprint draw, and 56.5kg is manageable on Heavy 10. The main knock is the Shocking pedigree, which leans toward stamina rather than sharp 1200m speed, and she may be forced to concede too much start in a slow-run maiden.

Our price $5.00 · SP $3.90 · J K Riddell

He has senior rider J K Riddell and a barrier that fits Wanganui's Heavy sprint pattern, but Shocking-bred 4yos are not typically winning fresh over 1340m on Heavy.

Our price $7.00 · SP $18.50 · S J Macnab

Go Trigger is the strongest form reference, having won a BM65 over this course and 1360m on Heavy10 last month, defeating Whiskey N' Rye and Trainwreck. He maps midfield with the fast tempo, carries the same S J Macnab combination that is 2-from-2 on him, and barrier 11 is a plus at Wanganui on heavy.

Our price $8.00 · SP $5.30 · L T Hemi

Carlow is a strong heavy-track performer with a 1 win, 2 placing record from five starts, all on rain-affected ground. He was a solid second in BM65 grade at Hastings last start after breaking slowly, and he has already won at Wanganui on Heavy10. The step to 1340m looks well within range, and L T Hemi's familiarity is a plus.

Our price $7.50 · SP $7.60 · Kyle Wilson-Taylor

He is lightly raced and progressing, though he still needs to prove himself at BM65 level after an earlier 8th at Otaki. The booking of Kyle Wilson-Taylor is a negative given a lack of recent winners, but the horse's sharp fitness and wet-track aptitude keep him among the leading chances.

Our price $10.00 · SP $13.20 · L Sutherland

Whiskey N' Rye is the value runner after finishing second to Go Trigger in this same course/distance race on Heavy10 last month, beaten less than a length. He gets weight conditions closer to Go Trigger today and maps to come from behind in a race with genuine early pace. His heavy-track record is workable and barrier 9 is well suited at Wanganui.

Our price $5.00 · SP $6.30 · S J Macnab

Reconvene is the clear form horse of the moment. He won a BM65 1600m Heavy9 last start from last, and was placed 3rd in Open company on a wet track in July, showing he can handle the step up. With just 55.5kg and an established jockey partnership, he maps for a similar back-running ride.

Our price $6.00 · SP $9.90 · Joe Doyle

Sandoku is a specialist on heavy ground and her latest second in Open company at 1400m on Heavy9 reads well for this BM75. She has won at 1600m on Heavy10 and finished second in a BM75 at the trip on a bog, giving her the most relevant wet-mile form. The main concerns are first ride here for Joe Doyle and no course experience, but her proven heavy-track strength keeps her a strong each-way chance.

Our price $10.00 · SP $15.00 · W F Pinn

Perfect Test is a Wanganui mile specialist on heavy ground, with three wins and a second from six starts over this course and distance. She is first up from a long spell, and her first-up statistics of 1 win and 2 seconds from 3 starts indicate she can produce fresh. The risk is the poor heavy runs that led to her spell, making her a value each-way play rather than a confident win pick.

Our price $5.00 · SP $9.10 · L J Allpress

Midnight Dart offers the strongest blend of wet-track form and class in this Listed sprint. He was narrowly beaten in a Listed race on Heavy10 at Otaki last start and had previously run second at Wanganui on Heavy8 over 1200m. His heavy profile (1 win, 2 placings from 3 starts) and barrier 9 align with Wanganui's sprint bias.

Our price $5.50 · SP $7.20 · M Hashizume

Out Of The Blue is the main threat to Midnight Dart. He returned from a break with a solid fourth on Heavy8 at Taupo and has previously won when second-up. His runner-up effort in a Group 3 over 1200m on Heavy9 is the strongest black-type reference in the race, and barrier 10 is a positive for Wanganui's sprint bias. Expect sharp improvement from a fit and seasoned three-year-old.

Our price $7.00 · SP $7.20 · C R Barnes

So Fear has the strongest filly form on paper, including a Wanganui 1200m win and a Listed third. However, Heavy 8 is an unknown for her and Wanganui's wet-track statistics clearly favour mid-outer barriers over gate 2. She also returns from a 118-day break.

Our price $10.00 · SP $17.20 · K A Myers

Our price $4.20 · SP $5.10 · Kyle Wilson-Taylor

Honey Badger is the one to beat on a genuine Heavy8. She is a specialised wet tracker, 5-from-14 on heavy and 5-from-11 at 1200m, arriving off a strong Open win over this trip on Heavy10. Her Wanganui record includes a Heavy10 win at this course and distance. The inside draw and quiet recent jockey numbers temper confidence slightly, but her form, fitness and proven heavy-track ability make her the most likely winner.

Our price $5.80 · SP $10.20 · L J Allpress

Farravallo is the clear value threat despite being a place selection. His course/distance heavy record is reliable and his on-pace pattern should be well suited to the likely moderate tempo.

Our price $3.25 · SP $5.00 · W F Pinn

Her heavy-track profile is solid, and she maps midfield from an inside gate with a strong rider/trainer combination. The query is the step to 2040m, but her Listed fourth over this course and distance on good ground suggests she stays.

Our price $5.50 · SP $9.80 · M Hashizume

Pick Of The Litter maps to have every chance: drawn 2, she can take up the running in a slow-run 2040m race on a Heavy track. She has genuine Open-company form, including a second over 1800m at New Plymouth on Heavy8 and a last-start third in a BM75 over 2100m on Heavy9. The low weight and inside draw are significant on Wanganui's staying course. Main concerns are her modest career win rate and lack of a Wanganui placing.

Our price $8.00 · SP $12.40 · S J Macnab

What A Charma rates as the clear value play. He ran second in an Open handicap over 2000m on Heavy10 at New Plymouth last start and was third in this exact Wanganui 2040m race on Heavy10 last year. His heavy-track strike rate is modest but his place rate is strong, and he maps to be running on late.

Our price $6.00 · SP $16.60 · S J Macnab

Our Lady Brooke maps perfectly from barrier 2 on Heavy8 at Wanganui, where inside draws and handy positions are significant. She has placed in 8 of 15 heavy starts and finished second in this BM65 over 2040m last year. In a likely slow-run race she can sit just off the leaders and use her staying strength.

Our price $5.50 · SP $6.00 · Sam McNab

Barrier 1 helps, but his settled-back running style is a negative with only two genuine leaders and a predicted slow tempo. His conversion rate of just 2 wins from 18 starts also tempers win confidence.

Our price $9.00 · SP $13.80 · M K Hudson

He has posted consecutive fourths over 2100m on Heavy10 against BM65 and BM75 company, and his only win came on Heavy10 in June. The 2040m trip and wet conditions suit.