Lismore tips and results

Our price $3.50 · SP $5.50 · Violet Soulsby

Consistent mare who has run four seconds and two thirds and brings the strongest soft-ground form into this — her Grafton second over 1400 was the run of the race. Drawn to lead or sit handy from gate four and carries little weight, which is exactly the profile that wins maidens here. The obvious knock is 17 starts without a win, but she is the safest form line in the race.

Our price $3.60 · SP $1.90 · Stephen Cummins

At Lismore backmarkers have been completely shut out recently, and his rider is without a winner in twenty rides.

Our price $8.50 · SP $13.00 · Siabh Rigley

On-pace galloper who gets in on the minimum with a claiming rider from an ideal inside gate, and comes off a close third over 1600 at Coffs Harbour with a slight drop in grade. Maps to be prominent, which is where winners come from here.

Our price $4.50 · SP $3.70 · Siabh Rigley

The form pick. He won here over this trip and ran a close third at this track and grade last start, closing hard from well back over a shorter journey. He goes on soft ground and his trainer knows how to win at Lismore. Top weight of 60kg and a habit of settling deep are the risks, but he holds the strongest course-and-distance credentials in the field.

Our price $8.50 · SP $5.50 · Archie McColm

A wet-track specialist with three wins from 16 soft starts who gets in light at 53.5kg. She won two of her past four, both on rain-affected ground, and closed well for seventh at this track last start. The knock is that she has never raced beyond 1900m and tends to settle a long way back, a pattern Lismore punishes, so she is a place/upgrade hope rather than a confident winner.

Our price $13.00 · SP $15.00 · Frederick Larson

The value runner. An on-pace stayer drawn well in barrier three, which suits the Lismore leaders' bias, and he has run to a good standard at staying trips on soft ground.

Our price $4.00 · SP $3.80 · Andrew Mallyon

The class runner, dropping out of stronger company, and his Murwillumbah win two starts back on soft ground was the best run in the race. The Dunn/Mallyon combination is a strong pointer. The worry is his get-back style: Lismore heavily favours on-pace runners while closers have been shut out, and he was plain last start. Classy enough, but the map is against him.

Our price $7.00 · SP $10.00 · Jasper Franklin

Slides sharply in grade and was only beaten a length and a half in a stronger race at this track a fortnight ago. He settles in the first half of the field, so he can exploit the on-pace lean, and the jockey rides this track well.

Our price $6.50 · SP $9.50 · Grace Palmer

Looks the value. She's the likely leader and, with a slow tempo predicted, she can dictate terms. Lismore strongly favours on-pace runners and closers have been shut out, so her front-running style is a plus, and she is a proven wet-tracker who gets in on the minimum.

Our price $3.60 · SP $2.70 · Jasper Franklin

Won his last start at this track over 1310m on soft ground, settling on the speed and finding plenty late. Maps to lead or press from gate six, and Lismore strongly favours on-pace runners from inside draws. Carries 4kg less than that win and combines with a trainer/jockey team going well. The step up from BM58 is the query, but his track and going credentials make him the one to beat.

Our price $4.50 · SP $2.90 · Grady Spokes

Has won his last two, showing a sharp turn of foot from well back, and his strike rate is the best in the race. Drawn inside at four and the jockey rides him well. However, he does his best work from behind, and Lismore's soft-track profile is brutal on backmarkers.

Our price $10.00 · SP $11.00 · Ben Looker

Genuine soft-track mare who won at this track earlier and has been close up in stronger company at her last two, including a narrow second at Murwillumbah.

Our price $5.00 · SP $3.60 · Danny Peisley

The lone speed runner in a race where Lismore maidens heavily favour horses on the pace and inside draws. He has the early dash to lead, is a big class drop from a black-type two-year-old event, and every one of his better runs has been on soft ground. Freshened with a trial win. From the front he controls the tempo and is the one to beat.

Our price $10.00 · SP $13.00 · Grady Spokes

He is second-up, drawn well and has a trainer-and-jockey pairing with a strong record together.

Our price $4.00 · SP $7.00 · Daniel Moor

Consistent on-pacer in career-best form, winning two of his last four including a C5 at Eagle Farm before a close second in stronger company on soft. Suits Lismore's hard on-pace bias and has won three of six on rain-affected ground, but rises in class and must overcome a wide gate in a hot early speed battle.

Our price $7.00 · SP $8.00 · Ryan Houston

Proven at the trip with five wins from 14 and suited by the inside draw; has held his own in stronger Sydney races and is improving. The concern is his get-back style, which is rarely successful at Lismore, so he needs the hot early tempo to bring him into the finish.

Our price $2.20 · SP $2.60 · Archie McColm

Drawn ideally in gate two and she races on the speed, exactly the style Lismore's sprint course rewards. Still without a win on soft ground and beaten both times second-up, but she is the most likely winner.

Our price $6.00 · SP $4.20 · Danny Peisley

Improving four-year-old with the best wet-track record in the race — two wins and a second from three soft starts. He was runner-up over this trip here last start after being held up, and his rider knows him well. The concern is the wide draw and his get-back style on a course that has been unkind to backmarkers, but his form is hard to ignore.

Our price $9.50 · SP $11.00 · Jett Newman

Progressive mare who won over this course and trip on soft ground last start and has three wins from four on rain-affected going. From a powerful local yard, she is lightly raced and still on the up.