Flemington tips and results

Our price $4.50 · SP $3.40 · Blake Shinn

Brings the strongest riding and training combination in the race. Blake Shinn is riding brilliantly and goes well here, while Michael Freedman's yard is firing. By leading speed sire Written Tycoon, he won a recent trial on soft going, hinting the heavy conditions will be no problem. A slightly wider gate and just one public trial are the knocks, but the quality around him makes him a serious winning chance.

Our price $6.00 · SP $5.00 · Harry Coffey

The main queries are a jockey-and-trainer pairing still chasing its first win together and a slightly trickier gate than the top two. Still a genuine place hope and one to keep onside.

Our price $6.50 · SP $9.00 · Daniel Stackhouse

Three wins from her last five and easily the best wet-track profile among the on-pace runners - two wins and a placing from five heavy starts. Led and won by six lengths on a heavy ten at Warrnambool and was beaten a length after leading at Sandown last start. Drawn perfectly in five, carries only 55.5kg and can control or sit handy.

Our price $16.00 · SP $26.00 · Billy Egan

Drawn the inside gate in barrier one, which is a real asset on a heavy Flemington track, and he drops back in grade.

Our price $5.00 · SP $3.70 · Harry Coffey

He is not on top because that win came off a slow tempo, he has never seen heavy ground or gone past 1500m, and he lacks the early speed to hold a spot from barrier 1 in a 14-horse field. Flemington in the wet has been punishing horses who settle back.

Our price $8.00 · SP $9.00 · Lachlan Neindorf

The Dundeel colt should be better suited at 1800m second-up and has the speed to take a forward spot, which is where winners have been coming from on wet ground here. The wide gate is the main problem and heavy ground is an unknown, though he has won on soft.

Our price $14.00 · SP $26.00 · Jamie Mott

He is being judged harshly on a flat Sandown run when he carried 60kg and gave Lepolo 3.5kg; they meet at level weights here. He is the only Flemington 1800m winner in the race, was placed in the Listed Taj Rossi Final at the track, and ran well on heavy ground here as a two-year-old. From barrier 3 he should settle in the first few, the right place to be on this surface.

Our price $8.00 · SP $4.20 · John Allen

A lightly-raced improver whose profile fits this race beautifully. She got the job done well at Geelong last time and, crucially, settles on the pace, which is exactly where you want to be on a Heavy 9 at Flemington. The jump from maiden company to a Group 2 is the obvious question, but the stable is firing, the draw is kind and her racing style should keep her out of trouble.

Our price $11.00 · SP $8.50 · Blake Shinn

She has already won on a heavy track and gets the inside draw, which matters a lot at Flemington with the rail out nine metres and the track a bog.

Our price $3.80 · SP $2.60 · Mark Zahra

The one to beat. A lightly raced four-year-old who has won five of eight and has a strong record over this trip, she handles wet ground and won on a heavy track earlier in the campaign. She sat handy and was run down in the Let's Elope here last start but finished close up, and with the speed drawn wide she should get cover off the pace.

Our price $5.50 · SP $4.60 · Jabez Johnstone

Winner of six of eight and never unplaced, she is the most reliable mare in the field. She is proven on heavy ground and races up on the speed. The queries are the first try at 1400m and a wide gate, and a hot tempo could pressure her on the lead, but she is fit, in form and hard to leave out.

Our price $14.00 · SP $26.00 · Dean Yendall

She handles heavy ground, is drawn the inside gate and is second-up, a scenario in which she traditionally runs well. If she controls the tempo from barrier one she could prove hard to peg back. The fast forecast tempo is the risk, but at 27-1 she is a clear each-way overlay.

Our price $4.80 · SP $4.60 · Ethan Brown

She was a strong second in a Listed sprint over this course last start after a dominant maiden win, and she gets in with a featherweight. She settles midfield and attacks the line, and her draw is ideal. The only query is the sharp rise in grade, but she looks up to it.

Our price $14.00 · SP $26.00 · Craig Williams

A progressive colt who won well on a heavy track two runs back, beating older horses. He is drawn ideally in gate two, races handy, and Craig Williams knows him well. His Flemington run last start was full of merit and he drops to a light weight.

Our price $6.50 · SP $9.50 · Jye McNeil

A heavy-track winner who will settle handy from a good draw. He was the best of today's rivals in the Naturalism Stakes last start and strips fitter second-up into his campaign. The queries are the top weight and the fact he has never raced at Flemington or over this trip.

Our price $6.50 · SP $6.00 · Harry Coffey

She owns the best finishing burst here and has won over 2500m. The worry is she settles at the tail, and in a slowly-run race on a heavy track the leaders can get away with it. Genuine place claims but risky to win from there.

Our price $7.00 · SP $7.00 · Michael Dee

The standout wet-track mare here — two wins and two placings from five heavy-track runs — and she gets the inside gate and a feather weight. Her recent Sydney runs in stronger races were not far away and she drops into a weaker contest.

Our price $2.75 · SP $3.00 · Craig Williams

His first-up run behind a hot Group 1 field was a sound platform and he is second-up today, a stage where he improves sharply. He settles in the handy band that wins these heavy-track staying races. Everything points to him being the one to beat.

Our price $11.00 · SP $13.00 · Michael Dee

The track-and-distance specialist of the field, unbeaten in two starts over this course and trip and placed in a hot Caulfield lead-up last time. The knock is a sharp rise in grade, a wide draw and a get-back style on a heavy track, but his Flemington 2000m record is the best in the race.

Our price $12.00 · SP $21.00 · Jordan Childs

A fit, wet-track mare who profiles neatly for a heavy Flemington 2000m. She races on the speed, lands in the mid draws that win most, carries only 55kg and is second-up, the stage at which she has won twice from four tries. Her rider has a fine record on her and the stable is firing.

Our price $7.50 · SP $9.00 · Blake Shinn

Building a nice record this campaign and was game when second behind Losesomewinmore in the Bobbie Lewis, leading and fighting on. From barrier three he should land in a handy spot, which is ideal for these conditions. He has yet to prove himself on heavy ground, which is the query, but he is improving and well drawn.

Our price $9.50 · SP $10.00 · Craig Williams

The value runner. He won the Bobbie Lewis over this track and trip last start and has an outstanding Flemington record, having won six times from ten starts here. He comes from well back but a fast tempo up front should suit him.

Our price $4.50 · SP $2.40 · Jabez Johnstone

He is unbeaten in two heavy-track runs and owns seven soft-track wins, and he steps out from an ideal inside gate carrying just 54.5kg. Two wins from his last four starts say he is at peak fitness.

Our price $13.00 · SP $11.00 · Logan Bates

The value runner. A heavy-track specialist with three wins and a second from six wet starts, he has the prized inside draw, just 54kg and enough early toe to lead. He won strongly two runs back and is fit.