Punt like a Pro, without the know!
New South Wales · Saturday 3 October 2026
Our top pick won 2 of 7 races at Newcastle. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
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Satono's Shout drops in class from stronger juvenile races to a maiden, and he is second-up with a stable in top form. His best efforts have come at 1400m or further, so the step to 1500m suits. He has been sitting too far back lately, but his class edge makes him the most likely winner in an open-looking race.
Caviar is the main pace in the race, drawn barrier 2 and a proven runner at this track, where he was just beaten at Newcastle in August. The step up in distance and top weight are concerns, and the last-start fade was unexplained. He still rates a strong chance of leading and holding on in a leader-friendly maiden.
Phlox beat both Last Affair and Satono's Shout in the same race last start, despite being held up for a stretch and having to be steadied late. She gets a similar map from barrier 6 and has the Waller stable behind her, making her the best value in the field.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Last Affair | 3 | Rory Hutchings | Michael Freedman | 56kg | $3.30 |
| 2nd | 8 | Rye Manhattan | 1 | Adam Farragher | John O'Shea and Tom Charlton | 55kg | $14.00 |
| 3rd | 3 | Satono's Shout | 5 | Lee Magorrian | Chris Waller | 56.5kg | $3.70 |
| 4th | 7 | Reelflare | 4 | Keagan Latham | John O'Shea and Tom Charlton | 55.5kg | $6.00 |
| 5th | 1 | Caviar | 2 | L P Beuzelin | Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott | 59kg | $3.50 |
| 6th | 2 | Phlox | 6 | Jeff Penza | Chris Waller | 56.5kg | $12.00 |
| 7th | 9 | Tightrope Walker | 9 | Andrew Gibbons | Denim Wynen | 55kg | $101.00 |
| 8th | 4 | Too Expensive | 8 | Jean Van Overmeire | Kris Lees | 56.5kg | $31.00 |
| Scr | 6 | Palm Tree | 7 | Mitchell Bell | Chris Waller | 56kg |
Wallace Station gets the call as the most likely winner on form. He won at Newcastle two starts ago and ran well above his finish last start, covering extra ground from a wide gate. With no genuine leader in the field, his ability to sit handy suits the likely slow pace. He is still unexposed, and the barrier and weight are both fair. The risk is a class rise and the first-time visors.
The concern is the map: he usually settles near last and finishes late, which is a risk in a race with no genuine leader. His one win in eight starts and 60kg weight also temper enthusiasm.
Sea Level is lightly raced and improving, and his win last start came with a strong finish after he lost ground at the start. The step from a Super Maiden into Class 1 is significant, and his early speed is modest, so he needs luck in a race with a slow tempo.
He is drawn well, the Kris Lees stable is in form and has a good Newcastle record, and his midfield settling suits a slow-run race.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Wallace Station | 6 | Rory Hutchings | Michael Freedman | 56.5kg | $2.70 |
| 2nd | 2 | Varjak | 1 | Louise Day | Ciaron Maher | 60kg | $2.15 |
| 3rd | 7 | Air Kiss | 3 | Olivia Chambers | Kylie Gavenlock | 53kg | $91.00 |
| 4th | 6 | Renoir | 5 | Jess Taylor | Kylie Gavenlock | 56kg | $61.00 |
| 5th | 1 | Freddie Bassett | 4 | Mitchell Bell | Annabel and Rob Archibald | 62kg | $11.00 |
| 6th | 3 | Siccius | 2 | Andrew Gibbons | Kris Lees | 58.5kg | $41.00 |
| 7th | 4 | Sea Level | 7 | Aaron Bullock | John O'Shea and Tom Charlton | 58kg | $5.00 |
Mille Feuille has been the most reliable performer here, running to a winning standard in her last two races and going down only a head or so at Nowra. She gets a leading jockey with a strong Newcastle record, a handy position behind a lone leader and a lift in distance.
The risk is a moderate tempo that favours leaders, but she has the class to overcome it and is a genuine winning chance.
He rates a fair chance but a shade below the top two on value and form, so he is a place-leaning option.
Best form in the race on a clock, and the class drop from open 2yo company is the key. The gelding operation and a trial win suggest he is ready to go one better after several placings.
Areesea has been steadily improving and ran a gutsy second last start, finishing quickly after settling well back. Drawn barrier 3, he has a better chance to find cover closer to the speed.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 15 | Whoopi Do | 1 | Aaron Bullock | Tony Ball | 58kg | $101.00 |
| 2nd | 5 | All Over Harry | 2 | Jean Van Overmeire | Anthony and Sam Freedman | 56.5kg | $6.00 |
| 3rd | 11 | Dynamic Diva | 15 | Liberty Smyth | Tony Ball | 52kg | $151.00 |
| 4th | 6 | Areesea | 3 | Andrew Gibbons | Kim Waugh | 56.5kg | $16.00 |
| 5th | 7 | Dr Know | 10 | Mitchell Bell | John O'Shea and Tom Charlton | 56.5kg | $3.00 |
| 6th | 13 | Mille Feuille | 7 | Keagan Latham | Richard and Will Freedman | 55.5kg | $3.20 |
| 7th | 3 | Crestwood | 6 | Grant Buckley | Matthew Smith | 57kg | $91.00 |
| 8th | 14 | Sequoia | 9 | Rory Hutchings | Michael Freedman | 56kg | $9.50 |
| 9th | 10 | Zynaro | 8 | Lee Magorrian | Chris Waller | 56.5kg | $17.00 |
| 10th | 12 | Electric Bliss | 12 | Adam Farragher | Annabel and Rob Archibald | 55kg | $7.50 |
| Scr | 1 | Howzat Harry | 4 | Liam Riordan | Mark Minervini | 59kg | |
| Scr | 2 | Zousari | 14 | Jess Taylor | Jason Coyle | 59kg | |
| Scr | 4 | Macaroon | 13 | Louise Day | Bjorn Baker | 57kg | |
| Scr | 8 | Iminastate | 11 | Richard and Will Freedman | 56.5kg | ||
| Scr | 9 | Rolling Home | 5 | Heavelon Van Der Hoven | Annabel and Rob Archibald | 56.5kg |
She has won both barrier trials, the latest at Newcastle, and Nathan Doyle's stable is in top form. Debutants carry risk, but her light weight and likely on-speed run suit a tactical, moderately run 900m. Barrier 7 is the main negative.
Wild Courage has the best race form among the experienced runners. She finished third here over 900m and then ran competitive races against better maidens. The Maher stable is in form and she has a neutral barrier. She should settle handy in a race without a strong leader. Place appeal is strong.
Capdiva is a speed horse and she maps well from barrier 1 in a race that lacks a genuine leader. Her times are better than her results suggest, and she has been unlucky not to win a maiden. The stable is cold and she tends to weaken late, so she is more a place chance.
She has been improving, and a lack of strong pace could suit her in a tactical race.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Thorsten | 4 | Jess Taylor | Matthew Smith | 57.5kg | $10.00 |
| 2nd | 4 | Capdiva | 1 | Mikayla Weir | Gary Portelli | 56.5kg | $7.50 |
| 3rd | 7 | Lady Talea | 6 | Mitchell Bell | Jason Coyle | 55kg | $18.00 |
| 4th | 9 | Wild Courage | 3 | Louise Day | Ciaron Maher | 55kg | $3.40 |
| 5th | 1 | Busy Bee | 2 | Lee Magorrian | Mark Minervini | 58kg | $26.00 |
| 6th | 6 | Intense Dream | 7 | Liberty Smyth | Nathan Doyle | 52kg | $1.80 |
| Scr | 3 | Tickelova | 8 | Jean Van Overmeire | Kris Lees | 57kg | |
| Scr | 5 | Final Gift | 9 | Olivia Chambers | Mark Cross | 53kg | |
| Scr | 8 | Long Live | 5 | Shannen Llewellyn | Jason Deamer | 54kg |
Best blend of class, current form and map in a race likely to be run at a furious pace. She has been hard to beat at Bm64 level, comes in off a winning trial, and carries a feather weight. She has a habit of finishing second, but she should be finishing over the top of the tiring leaders.
He is not selected as the top pick because 63.5kg is a big burden when he is likely to be pushed along in a very quick early battle.
A genuine unknown with a strong profile. He won the only race he has had over this course and distance, and he finishes off well from the midfield, which is the right position for a very fast pace. A good each-way option.
She has run better than her results suggest, and her strong late sprinting in recent starts should suit a race where the leaders are likely to burn each other out. With the rail and a light weight, she should get a good run. A small each-way play.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Emalyn | 9 | Liberty Smyth | Nathan Doyle | 54.5kg | $3.10 |
| 2nd | 1 | Valilee | 6 | Mitchell Bell | Jake Hull | 63.5kg | $2.70 |
| 3rd | 10 | Strollin' By | 1 | Mikayla Weir | Gary Portelli | 55kg | $12.00 |
| 4th | 9 | Karkadaan | 3 | Jess Taylor | Jason Coyle | 56kg | $7.50 |
| 5th | 11 | Paji Briway | 5 | Grant Buckley | Wayne Seelin | 55kg | $101.00 |
| 6th | 4 | Mrs Flanders | 10 | Rebecca Bronett Prag | Kerry Parker | 56kg | $13.00 |
| 7th | 8 | Aegipan | 4 | Keagan Latham | Theresa Bateup | 56kg | $8.50 |
| 8th | 3 | He's Cool | 7 | Serg Lisnyy | Mark Minervini | 59kg | $31.00 |
| 9th | 7 | No Statement | 2 | Shannen Llewellyn | Mike Van Gestel | 54.5kg | $15.00 |
| Scr | 2 | Abuse Of Power | 8 | Jean Van Overmeire | John Sharah | 59.5kg | |
| Scr | 6 | The Magic Man | 11 | Paul Perry | 57kg |
Florino looks the most likely winner on form. He should control a moderate tempo as the only real leader from barrier 3, and he drops from Bm74 into a Bm64 where he has already been placed. The jockey's recent form is a worry, but the map and class drop outweigh it.
Imperial Royale is a lightly raced filly who won over 1200m on Good ground last start and finished fast. The inside gate and 55kg weight are advantages, and she should settle just off the lone leader. The Bm64 grade is a real step up and the form is still thin, but her trajectory and the stable's Newcastle record make her a solid second pick.
She is not a top pick because of barrier 10, a slow starting pattern in a race where leaders are favoured, and a big class rise carrying 59kg.
The Lees stable is flying, and he should be ready after a couple of trials.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Beneath The Rock | 10 | Aaron Bullock | Kris Lees | 59kg | $2.90 |
| 2nd | 8 | Imperial Royale | 1 | Jean Van Overmeire | Bjorn Baker | 55kg | $4.40 |
| 3rd | 9 | Bonjour Madame | 4 | Olivia Chambers | Mark Minervini | 53kg | $61.00 |
| 4th | 11 | Interro | 2 | Heavelon Van Der Hoven | Annabel and Rob Archibald | 55kg | $20.00 |
| 5th | 1 | My Phar Lady | 9 | Keagan Latham | Richard and Will Freedman | 61.5kg | $13.00 |
| 6th | 3 | Etoile Filante | 5 | Andrew Gibbons | Kris Lees | 60kg | $26.00 |
| 7th | 10 | Vittozzi | 11 | Shannen Llewellyn | Nathan Doyle | 54kg | $4.20 |
| 8th | 2 | Florino | 3 | Liberty Smyth | Nathan Doyle | 58kg | $5.00 |
| 9th | 7 | Crash Bang Wallop | 7 | Christian Reith | Brad Widdup | 56kg | $31.00 |
| Scr | 5 | Missile Magnate | 6 | Rory Hutchings | Annabel and Rob Archibald | 59kg | |
| Scr | 6 | St Johann | 8 | Michael, Wayne and John Hawkes | 59kg |
Ellofadude is the best form pick. He has run to a winning standard in most recent starts and won last start at Taree. The inside gate and moderate tempo put him in the box seat on-pace.
Hey Jude gets the weight advantage and has the stable in strong form at Newcastle. She was only beaten a few lengths when third last time and should improve second-up.
Puerto Banus has a strong Newcastle record, including a win last start, and his best runs have come at this track and distance. He is the type to finish off from midfield.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Caltsar | 11 | Shannen Llewellyn | Nathan Doyle | 58.5kg | $26.00 |
| 2nd | 6 | Puerto Banus | 7 | Jess Taylor | Paul Perry | 60kg | $16.00 |
| 3rd | 5 | Olympian | 4 | Aaron Bullock | Paul Messara and Leah Gavranich | 60kg | $2.25 |
| 4th | 9 | Glastonbury Girl | 13 | Lee Magorrian | Matthew Smith | 58kg | $5.50 |
| 5th | 8 | Ellofadude | 2 | Mikayla Weir | Ben Blay | 58.5kg | $5.00 |
| 6th | 1 | Cosmic Avenger | 12 | Leeshelle Small | John Sargent | 58.5kg | $21.00 |
| 7th | 13 | Borjnord | 3 | Keagan Latham | Richard and Will Freedman | 55.5kg | $41.00 |
| 8th | 3 | Falcon Lair | 8 | Heavelon Van Der Hoven | Annabel and Rob Archibald | 60.5kg | $14.00 |
| 9th | 12 | Hey Jude | 5 | Jean Van Overmeire | Bjorn Baker | 55kg | $8.00 |
| 10th | 10 | Tulipwood | 6 | Adam Farragher | Annabel and Rob Archibald | 55.5kg | $51.00 |
| Scr | 4 | Associate | 9 | Shaun Guymer | Danielle Seib | 60kg | |
| Scr | 7 | Chix | 10 | Mitchell Bell | John O'Shea and Tom Charlton | 59kg | |
| Scr | 11 | Lady Yarrow | 1 | Theresa Bateup | 55kg |
Before the races, not after
Our top three picks and a value pick for every race, with assessed prices, speed maps and the analysis behind them. Free for 7 days.