Happy Valley tips and results

Our price $3.30 · SP $5.60 · Vincent Ho

Glorious Journey has been running to a winning standard at this course and distance for months and his last-start third came despite a wide draw and interference. Today he draws barrier 4, maps as the lone leader in a slowly run race on a track that strongly favours on-pace runners, and has Vincent Ho aboard.

Our price $7.50 · SP $7.10 · James Orman

On raw ability Refusetobeenglish is a leading chance. The problem is the map: he usually settles at the tail and the predicted slow tempo on a leader-favouring track means he will need luck and a strong run through the field.

Our price $11.00 · SP $17.00 · E C W Wong

He has only had four starts, each of his last two over 1200m at the Valley finished off strongly, and the stable is the best in the race at this track. The step up to 1650m is a leap but his racing pattern suggests he wants further, and bottom weight helps.

Our price $5.00 · SP $6.50 · Zac Purton

Golden Friendship is the obvious class-dropper and his Class 4 Valley form, with two seconds at this course and distance, is good enough to win a Class 5. He races forward from an ideal gate with Purton aboard, which fits the track bias perfectly. The concerns are the 61kg top weight, a stable that cannot buy a winner at present and a weak last run from a wide draw.

Our price $8.00 · SP $3.60 · Vincent Ho

With three leaders set to burn each other off and only 54kg to carry, he is the midfield runner best placed to profit.

Our price $8.00 · SP $6.60 · Nichola Yuen

Winning Now is the map horse. He will lead from barrier 2 with only 53kg on his back after the claim, and leaders drawn inside have the best record in Valley sprints. His Class 4 form when leading at this course and distance was good enough for today's grade, and a recent trial second says he is ready.

Our price $4.40 · SP $3.90 · Nichola Yuen

The only proven front-runner in a race with little early speed, so it should dictate. The drop in class and the jockey's 3kg claim help, and its second-up record is strong. The concern is the recent fade after leading and a stable that is struggling, but the draw and map make it a very live chance.

Our price $5.00 · SP $8.40 · Derek Leung

A genuine Happy Valley winner last start, when it came from last. The likely slow tempo works against that style, and the stable is cold.

Our price $5.00 · SP $7.30 · Jerry Chau

Raced well enough in Class 4 at Sha Tin and trialled encouragingly at Happy Valley. A hot stable and first-time blinkers point to a ready runner. The year-long absence and a maiden record make it risky, but it is the best-value runner in the race.

Our price $7.00 · SP $5.00 · Matthew Poon

Lucky Mcqueen is a proven Happy Valley 1200m horse with two wins and two seconds from eight starts here. He has closed strongly in his last two runs, finishing second and fourth, and he handles this class. The top weight and wide draw are negatives, and he will need luck from off the pace, but his track knowledge and turn of foot give him a solid place chance.

Our price $6.50 · SP $6.30 · Angus Chung

Lightness Of Being produced his best recent run when third at this track and distance, finishing strongly. He drops in weight and is mapped to race closer to the speed. The concern is his record on Good ground, which is poor, but his latest effort suggests he is improving and he can be in the finish if he builds on it.

Our price $9.00 · SP $27.00 · Derek Leung

High Rise Victory ran a much better race than his finishing position suggests last time, closing strongly from a wide gate. Today he gets the inside draw, second-up, and carries a light weight. He is a value option for exotics.

Our price $6.00 · SP $10.00 · Britney Wong

Honest type who was beaten a neck over this trip at the Valley last time after sitting midfield and running on. He carries a light weight and finishes strongly, which should suit a race with plenty of early pressure. The negatives are a wide-ish gate and cold jockey and stable form, so he is more a placing prospect than an obvious winner.

Our price $7.00 · SP $15.00 · Nichola Yuen

Ran a genuinely good third over this course and distance last time, closing to within half a length and reportedly not fully tested. He is a forward type, but gate eleven in a race with several natural leaders means he may be forced to work early, which is the main worry.

Our price $7.00 · SP $16.00 · Brenton Avdulla

Beaten only two lengths first-up over this trip when crowded in the straight and forced to make ground from near last, so there was more merit than the finishing position suggests. He won here in June with a strong closing burst and should be fitter second-up.

Our price $4.50 · SP $2.20 · Alexis Badel

He is a progressive four-year-old with a big weight relief, a soft draw and a trainer who fires at the Valley, and his Sha Tin win showed he can reach this grade. Against that, his best is still below the top pick, he has never led despite being mapped to, and his rider is out of form.

Our price $3.80 · SP $4.80 · Zac Purton

Kol is the pick on form. He should settle handy from barrier 5 behind the genuine leaders, which suits Happy Valley's bias. Purton's record here and the Purton/Hayes combination are strong.

Our price $6.50 · SP $9.40 · Jerry Chau

Copartner Fleet gets the ideal draw on the rail and comes off a much-improved last start. While his Happy Valley record is poor, the inside gate and a genuine pace should let him settle handy and save ground. Jerry Chau is in good form.

Our price $7.00 · SP $9.10 · Vincent Ho

Perfect General is a genuine Happy Valley 1200m specialist and his last-start 12th at Sha Tin can be forgiven entirely after racing wide without cover from the outside gate. He now draws barrier 4, gets Vincent Ho back on, and has a forward racing style that is ideal here. He led throughout to win at this level in April carrying 58kg.

Our price $5.50 · SP $5.50 · Jerry Chau

Barrier 1 fixes that problem and he should get cover behind the speed. However he has won just twice in 16 starts, has never won at the Valley, and his stable is out of form.

Our price $9.00 · SP $11.00 · Zac Purton

Royal Blitz is the overlay. Purton choosing him for Whyte is a strong signal given their combined strike rate. His racing pattern puts him in the first four at the turn, which is where Valley sprints are won, and he has won fresh before.

Our price $6.50 · SP $4.50 · Jerry Chau

Embraces is a reliable Happy Valley mile-and-a-half horse who has rarely run a bad race here. His run last start was better than the result after being held up late from a wide gate, and he drops to barrier 2 with a jockey in good form and a claim. His May third here was run to a solid standard. The low win rate caps him as a win proposition, but he is a strong place chance and the second-most likely winner.

Our price $8.00 · SP $8.50 · E C W Wong

Forza Toro won this race's equivalent at Class 4 in July, leading throughout, and that was a genuinely strong performance for the grade. The last-start fade can be forgiven given a wide gate and first-up effort. Second up with a big weight pull and a middle draw he should be handy from the outset, which is where the winners come from here.

Our price $8.00 · SP $19.00 · Luke Ferraris

Lucky Sam Gor has the most consistent recent form in the field and has been going as well as anything in the race without the results to show for it. If the three leaders go hard, he is the one most capable of finishing over the top. Worth an each-way play as the overlay in the race.