Warwick Farm tips and results

Our price $5.00 · SP $3.40 · Jason Collett

All Over Harry maps to sit just off the speed from barrier 2, the right place if this maiden dawdles. His return at Newcastle over 1300m was a half-length second in a super maiden after sharing the lead, and Zac Lloyd takes over for the Freedmans. He is second-up with no earlier second-up runs to judge. The query is the ground: his only soft start saw him weaken and the rider felt he was uncomfortable.

Our price $4.00 · SP $3.60 · Regan Bayliss

He is the quickest beginner here and should control a moderate tempo at a track where front-runners hold a clear edge over backmarkers.

Our price $4.50 · SP $3.00 · James McDonald

Rumdabar has the best single performance in this field from his Newcastle win on heavy ground last preparation, and he has a winning record second-up. His first-up fourth at Kensington was better than it reads, running home strongly from last over a trip short of his best. The concern is positioning, as he lacks early speed and Warwick Farm rewards horses in the first half of the field. From barrier 5 with McDonald he should get closer than last start, and his class edge is real.

Our price $11.00 · SP $21.00 · Braith Nock

Off The Scale is the overlay. She won last start in the same grade on Soft 6 when coming from well back, and gets a far better position today in a race that looks slowly run. Her wet record is strong and she gets a feather weight.

Our price $6.50 · SP $5.00 · Shannen Llewellyn

Valilee has a lovely record for a six-start horse and is the best leader in the field. She bounced back with a strong second at Newcastle under 63.5kg and drops to 56.5kg today.

Our price $9.00 · SP $17.00 · Siena Grima

Spartus is a clear overlay at 16. He has won three of nine starts on soft going and has placed or won in all four starts at Warwick Farm. The queries are the top weight, an apprentice with a poor track record, and a run style that needs the race to fall apart, which the fast tempo makes more likely. Each-way is the play.

Our price $2.60 · SP $2.05 · Rachel King

She drops sharply from Group company, carries only 57kg, and the stable is flying. The only real queries are the lack of wet-track racing and the first-up status, but a trial win on a Soft 7 and a strong fresh record answer most of that.

Our price $7.50 · SP $16.00 · William A Stanley

A proven wet-tracker who thrives on the front and gets his ideal setup here. He is the only recognised leader in the field, the tempo looks slow, and Warwick Farm strongly favours horses who control the race. His last-start win here on a Soft 6 over this trip was a proper performance, and his overall record on rain-affected ground is the best in the race.

Our price $8.00 · SP $12.00 · Dylan Gibbons

Our price $4.60 · SP $6.50 · Dylan Gibbons

The most complete mile profile in the race. She has three starts at Warwick Farm over 1600m for a win, a second and a third, and she won her most recent one here on a soft track by leading and kicking clear. She drops slightly in grade, is in the best form of her career, and can either lead or take a sit. The main query is top weight and a fast tempo that could test her late, but her body of work stands out.

Our price $11.00 · SP $12.00 · Jason Collett

A natural front-runner drawn to control the tempo from a handy gate. He has two wins and two seconds from his last four completed runs, including a near-miss over 1800m on soft ground and a strong win at Canterbury. The mile here rewards horses on the speed. The risks are a fast tempo that could soften him up and a tendency to overrace, which cost him last start.

Our price $13.00 · SP $19.00 · Tommy Berry

A value runner stepping back to the trip she likes best. She has won twice at around a mile on soft ground and her recent sprint runs were better than they look, including a luckless fifth at Rosehill. From a good draw she can settle closer than she has lately, and the jockey-trainer combination is strong.

Our price $8.00 · SP $5.50 · Nash Rawiller

Regal Problem is the most proven horse at this level in the field, having won two straight before a sound but one-paced fourth under 61kg at Rosehill. She drops 2kg, gets a top jockey and the expected fast tempo should see her midfield with cover and finishing hard. The wide draw is the risk given this track's bias against backmarkers, but her recent runs show she settles closer than her reputation suggests.