Punt like a Pro, without the know!
New Zealand · Wednesday 21 October 2026
Our top pick won 5 of 9 races at Te Aroha. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
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His second over this trip at Te Aroha last month is the best performance anything in this field has produced, and he did it lugging a big highweight. He drops significantly in the weights today, is prepared on the track and has a rider/trainer combination that wins regularly. The queries are that both runs came on heavy ground and he is a six-year-old with only two starts, but his class should take him a long way in a thin maiden.
The most proven mile horse in the race. She was beaten a short margin over 1600m at Pukekohe on a Soft 5 surface and has placed three times on rain-affected going, so conditions hold no fears. Second-up today, she should be sharper than at Te Rapa where a wide draw ended her chances early. Her habit of getting back is a concern at a track where the closers find it hard, so she must settle handier.
Warren Kennedy is a top rider and goes particularly well at Te Aroha, and there is enough in the pedigree to suggest a mile on soft ground will suit.
Lightly raced and still on the improve. He was held up at the wrong moment on soft ground at Taupo, then did too much early and faded over 1400m at Waverley, so his form reads worse than he actually is. Craig Grylls is a strong booking and rides this stable well.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 11 | Ytoa | 10 | Masahiro Hashizume | Peter Lock | 58.5kg | $4.00 |
| 2nd | 3 | Lofty Manuel | 9 | Hayley Hassman | Shelley Hale | 55.5kg | $2.70 |
| 3rd | 2 | Icon | 8 | Munna Alam | Tim and Margaret Carter | 58.5kg | $26.00 |
| 4th | 8 | The Bouncer | 7 | Joe Doyle | Joanne Surgenor | 58.5kg | $12.00 |
| 5th | 4 | Messi Man | 6 | George Rooke | G, D Rogerson and C Isdale | 58.5kg | $17.00 |
| 6th | 12 | Zampierra | 12 | Warren Kennedy | M and K Murdoch | 56.5kg | $10.00 |
| 7th | 9 | The Frenchman | 4 | Wiremu Pinn | P Gerard | 58.5kg | $8.00 |
| 8th | 7 | Singe | 3 | Jasmine Fawcett | Paul Mirabelli | 56.5kg | $51.00 |
| 9th | 1 | Girlfriend | 2 | Matthew Cartwright | Shane Crawford | 56.5kg | $23.00 |
| 10th | 10 | Tralae Man | 5 | Ethan Jones | Ray Gavin | 58.5kg | $151.00 |
| 11th | 5 | Millie Grams | 1 | Matthew Cameron | Brigette Solomon | 56.5kg | $13.00 |
| 12th | 6 | Rio Benito | 11 | Samantha Collett | Shane Crawford | 58.5kg | $15.00 |
The most proven runner in a weak maiden. It has been placed in tougher handicap company on soft ground, including a Te Aroha second over this trip, and now drops to maiden level. First-up from a long break and the wide barrier are the risks, but it has the class edge and a stable and jockey pairing that wins regularly.
Improving maiden who was desperately close last start and has been placed three times at the mile or similar. Prefers some cut in the ground and is race-fit. The stable is out of form and he usually settles back, which is a worry in a slow race, but he rates a sound each-way type with obvious winning claims.
She has been placed in her last three starts and was only narrowly beaten by Papparazzi last start over this trip, despite being checked in the straight. The McNab-Walker combination is hard to ignore. The concern is a slow tempo that could leave her too far back, but she should be close enough off a good barrier and rates the most likely winner.
Likely to cross and lead or sit one off the speed, which is the best position in a slow-run mile at Te Aroha. It has a series of placings at shorter trips against maidens and handicappers and gets a leading local rider. The extra distance is the question, but the map and class drop make it a leading chance.
A four-year-old debutant from a stable that is winning, with an in-form jockey who has a strong record with the stable.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Taco | 12 | Masahiro Hashizume | S and E Clotworthy | 58.5kg | $15.00 |
| 2nd | 1 | Papparazzi | 7 | Joe Doyle | P Gerard | 58.5kg | $3.40 |
| 3rd | 13 | Dee Mack | 3 | Matthew Cartwright | David Greene | 56kg | $3.90 |
| 4th | 2 | The Spaniard | 11 | George Rooke | Roger James and Robert Wellwood | 58.5kg | $2.60 |
| 5th | 9 | Reikova | 4 | A Lawson-Carroll | M and K Murdoch | 56.5kg | $31.00 |
| 6th | 11 | The Explorer | 5 | Rihaan Goyaram | Samantha Mynott | 54.5kg | $71.00 |
| 7th | 6 | Measure Up | 9 | Jasmine Fawcett | Paul Mirabelli | 58.5kg | $51.00 |
| 8th | 7 | Morientes | 1 | Jack Taplin | Mark Forbes | 56.5kg | $10.00 |
| 9th | 5 | The Pen Is Mighty | 10 | Bridget Grylls | Terrence Powell | 58.5kg | $20.00 |
| 10th | 12 | Epic Quest | 2 | Lynsey Satherley | Stephen Ralph | 54kg | $67.00 |
| Scr | 3 | Foo Foo | 8 | Craig Grylls | Alex Forbes | 58.5kg | |
| Scr | 8 | Arrazola | 6 | Michael McNab | Mark Walker and Sam Bergerson | 56.5kg | |
| Scr | 10 | Showdamagic | 13 | Ralph Manning | 56.5kg |
She has finished in the top three at her last three starts, two of them over 2000m, and her soft-track record is solid. From barrier two Craig Grylls should have her closer than usual, and her turn of foot gives her a strong chance to break through.
Rocky Balboa is an exposed maiden but he has been racing honestly, with three thirds in his last three starts including a BM60 event. He drops to maiden company today and looks the probable leader in a race lacking natural pace. The wide gate is a concern but his early speed should allow him to cross or sit handy.
Kinross is lightly raced and still a maiden, but his last run at Taupo had merit as he was held up in the straight after racing handy. The concern is that he has not placed in four starts and his stable is yet to win a race recently.
Asvakan is an each-way value chance. He showed he can stay when third over 2200m on a heavy track two starts back, and his last run over 1600m was too short for him. The stable has a good strike rate with this jockey and he should be fitter now.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 10 | Djibouti | 2 | Michael McNab | Kurtis Pertab | 56.5kg | $3.40 |
| 2nd | 2 | Dun Talkin' | 11 | Elen Nicholas | Cat Burden | 58.5kg | $12.00 |
| 3rd | 11 | Chicflix | 5 | Ashlee Strawbridge | Paul Mirabelli | 54.5kg | $18.00 |
| 4th | 1 | Rocky Balboa | 10 | Matthew Cartwright | G, D Rogerson and C Isdale | 58.5kg | $5.50 |
| 5th | 4 | Kinross | 4 | George Rooke | S and E Clotworthy | 58.5kg | $7.00 |
| 6th | 9 | Morada | 12 | Masahiro Hashizume | Shane Crawford | 58.5kg | $67.00 |
| 7th | 12 | Lady Meera | 9 | Corentin Berge | Tayla Sherwood | 56.5kg | $6.50 |
| 8th | 5 | Boom Town | 3 | Tom Wigram | Donna Logan | 55.5kg | $9.00 |
| 9th | 3 | Asvakan | 7 | Courtney Barnes | C McKee | 58.5kg | $8.50 |
| 10th | 7 | Just Go Boom | 1 | Joe Doyle | Brent Gillovic | 58.5kg | $20.00 |
| 11th | 8 | King Of The Jungle | 6 | Samantha Collett | Donna Logan | 58.5kg | $41.00 |
| 12th | 6 | Just A Littletipsy | 8 | Bridget Grylls | Terrence Powell | 58.5kg | $126.00 |
Won his last start over 2400 at Ellerslie on soft ground, settling handy and proving strongest. He has a win and a second from two starts over this Te Aroha 2200 trip, and the pace map suggests he can sit in the first half in a slowly-run race. The one to beat.
A perennial placegetter who ran a strong second at this track last time after settling well back. He won second-up previously and has placed in both Te Aroha starts. The slow tempo is a slight query from off the pace, but he has the class and consistency to be in the finish. Better for the place than the win.
The pace map points to him as the likely on-pace runner in a race without a natural leader. He won second-up last preparation and has a high peak performance in him. His last-start fade at 1500 is a concern, and he steps to 2200 for the first time, but if he gets an easy lead he could be hard to run down.
A course specialist at this trip with a win and a placing from two starts over Te Aroha 2200. He won on soft ground at this track and his last run had genuine excuses after beginning awkwardly and hitting the rail.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Mr Blackjack | 7 | Michael McNab | Kurtis Pertab | 58.5kg | $5.50 |
| 2nd | 1 | Interplanetary | 9 | George Rooke | S and E Clotworthy | 59.5kg | $3.50 |
| 3rd | 7 | So Be It | 1 | Masahiro Hashizume | S N Rees | 55.5kg | $8.50 |
| 4th | 10 | Zacabasso | 4 | Rihaan Goyaram | G Richardson and R Norvall | 52kg | $8.50 |
| 5th | 4 | Vougeot | 5 | Lynsey Satherley | P Gerard | 57kg | $16.00 |
| 6th | 3 | Intoxicated | 3 | Matthew Cameron | Antony Fuller | 57.5kg | $5.00 |
| 7th | 6 | Cyber Patch | 10 | Ethan Jones | Catherine Cameron | 56kg | $20.00 |
| 8th | 5 | Jamaican Boy | 6 | Joe Doyle | Shane Crawford | 56.5kg | $6.50 |
| 9th | 9 | Middle Khan | 2 | Ashlee Strawbridge | Ray Gavin | 52.5kg | $19.00 |
| Scr | 8 | History Maker | 8 | Courtney Barnes | Paul Adlington | 55.5kg |
He drops out of BM65 company, has strong 1600m soft-track form and gets the gun run from barrier one for Opie Bosson. His first-up run was a fading effort after leading, but second-up he should be fitter and the slow tempo should suit.
Rock Ice brings the strongest last-start performance into this weaker grade, finishing a close fourth over 2000m at Taupo after settling handy. He has won on a soft track and at Te Aroha, and barrier three should let him take a forward position in a race lacking speed. The stable and jockey are cold, and 1600m is a slight query, but he rates the main danger.
He drops in class and can settle closer from barrier nine than he did last time when slowly away. The concern is that he has had plenty of chances on soft ground without winning, and he can get too far back. A placing is his most likely result.
A consistent on-pacer who drops out of stronger BM74/BM73 races. He is proven at 1600m and has a placing at this track and distance. His soft-track record is without a win, and the jockey is cold, but he should be in the finish if he handles the ground.
The major worry is a 158-day break; he has not won first-up and Te Aroha is a tough place to return.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Cease And Desist | 1 | Opie Bosson | Mark Walker and Sam Bergerson | 60kg | $3.30 |
| 2nd | 8 | Lagisquet | 9 | Tom Wigram | Jenna Mahoney | 54kg | $5.50 |
| 3rd | 9 | Zeffert | 2 | Masahiro Hashizume | Peter Lock | 56kg | $9.50 |
| 4th | 6 | Golden Jacket | 10 | Joe Doyle | Jim Pender | 59kg | $26.00 |
| 5th | 7 | Mister Pucci | 8 | A Lawson-Carroll | Gavin Opie | 57.5kg | $31.00 |
| 6th | 3 | Rock Ice | 3 | George Rooke | S and E Clotworthy | 60kg | $4.20 |
| 7th | 1 | Bit Of A Dagg | 7 | Samantha Collett | Finbarr Leahy | 60kg | $8.50 |
| 8th | 5 | New Castle | 4 | Sam McNab | Michelle Bradley | 57.5kg | $5.50 |
| 9th | 10 | Lady Mak | 6 | Jack Taplin | Peter Coutts | 52kg | $51.00 |
| Scr | 4 | Shamwari | 5 | Rihaan Goyaram | Mark Forbes | 58kg |
O'valerie has the best form on offer in a field of mostly debutants and unraced runners. She was second last start in a solid run, is second-up from a short break and has already shown she can race handy, which suits Te Aroha.
Withallmywish is an unraced filly with strong connection indicators. She gets a workable draw and the stable is in form.
But he was only seventh on debut, settled well back, and returns after a long spell. Those are poor signs at a track where backmarkers and long-break first-uppers struggle. He is a good place chance but too short to be the top pick.
Zaharias is the most proven runner in a field full of debutants and first-uppers. She has been placed in five of six starts, ran a genuine third on Soft last start and is fit. The Walker and Bergerson stable and McNab combination is hot.
Thrill Of Flight is the value option in a thin field. She ran fourth last start on Soft 5 after leading into the straight, and her early speed suits Te Aroha.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 6 | O'valerie | 18 | Michael McNab | Paul Richards | 55.5kg | $5.50 |
| 2nd | 11 | Stanza | 5 | Rihaan Goyaram | Samantha Mynott | 53.5kg | $11.00 |
| 3rd | 14 | Withallmywish | 8 | Masahiro Hashizume | Jenna Mahoney | 55.5kg | $9.00 |
| 4th | 10 | Blueprint Supreme | 6 | Matthew Cameron | Cody Cole | 55.5kg | $8.50 |
| 5th | 7 | Fiesta | 12 | Jasmine Fawcett | Darryn and Briar Weatherley | 55.5kg | $4.20 |
| 6th | 15 | Mystery Potion | 3 | George Rooke | Kylie Hoskin | 55.5kg | $26.00 |
| 7th | 2 | Rapid Fire | 1 | Elen Nicholas | Bruce Wallace and Grant Cooksley | 57.5kg | $15.00 |
| 8th | 1 | Aerial Impact | 7 | Opie Bosson | Mark Walker and Sam Bergerson | 57.5kg | $3.90 |
| 9th | 9 | Thrill Of Flight | 15 | Lynsey Satherley | Stephen Autridge | 55.5kg | $23.00 |
| 10th | 12 | Hotere | 16 | Wiremu Pinn | G Richardson and R Norvall | 55.5kg | $17.00 |
| 11th | 16 | Silky Sonic | 10 | Corentin Berge | S and E Clotworthy | 55.5kg | $81.00 |
| 12th | 13 | Me Gustas Tu | 2 | Jack Taplin | Kenny I Rae | 53.5kg | $61.00 |
| Scr | 3 | News | 9 | Bruce Wallace and Grant Cooksley | 57.5kg | ||
| Scr | 4 | Rising Moon | 17 | Mark Forbes | 55.5kg | ||
| Scr | 5 | Rossella | 13 | Tom Wigram | Jenna Mahoney | 52.5kg | |
| Scr | 8 | Lofty Wind | 14 | Donna Logan | 55.5kg | ||
| Scr | 17 | Zaharias | 11 | Michael McNab | Mark Walker and Sam Bergerson | 55.5kg | |
| Scr | 18 | She's A Diva | 4 | Murray B Garrett | 55.5kg |
The most likely winner on form. She is genuinely consistent, finishes well and has a top stable and jockey combination.
Best value for a win on form. He ran a creditable fourth on Soft at Taupo last start and should be fitter second up with a light weight. He drops in class and should be handy in a moderate tempo.
But her recent runs have been flat, she is first up from a long break and she wins rarely.
He is fit, drops in class, has the right record at this distance and gets a rider with a good track record. If he can get closer to the pace he should finish well. The risk is that he settles too far back.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 6 | Vesphire | 9 | George Rooke | Ralph Manning | 57kg | $6.00 |
| 2nd | 10 | Zaharias | 1 | Michael McNab | Mark Walker and Sam Bergerson | 54kg | $1.95 |
| 3rd | 5 | Pollyisacracker | 8 | Rihaan Goyaram | Gavin Opie | 55kg | $35.00 |
| 4th | 7 | Notabadbergs | 4 | Elen Nicholas | Cat Burden | 57kg | $13.00 |
| 5th | 4 | Ridgeview Vicky | 6 | Sam McNab | Gavin Opie | 56kg | $16.00 |
| 6th | 9 | King's Mount | 3 | Lynsey Satherley | Alan J Smith | 55.5kg | $101.00 |
| 7th | 8 | Flutterbelle | 2 | Courtney Barnes | Paul Gordon | 56.5kg | $26.00 |
| 8th | 3 | He's Classic | 10 | Krishi Ramdhun | Bruce Wallace and Grant Cooksley | 54.5kg | $21.00 |
| 9th | 1 | Smooth Warrior | 11 | Hyeontaek Oh | Dean Wiles | 56kg | $4.20 |
| 10th | 2 | Mista Stitch | 7 | Ashlee Strawbridge | Jacqui Teague | 57kg | $51.00 |
| 11th | 11 | She's A Diva | 5 | Bridget Grylls | Murray B Garrett | 54kg | $35.00 |
Gets the nod on form as the best-credentialed runner in a weak maiden. He has been placed in four of five starts, ran a brave second here over 1400m under a big weight, and is the only confirmed front-runner. A class drop and the on-pace bias help.
He has a handy draw and a quality sire, making him the best of the unknowns, though he is a risk until he shows ability on the track.
A consistent maiden who has run to a decent standard without finding the line. Her last two starts on soft tracks over this distance were respectable, and she is fit and drops to a light weight.
A placed maiden on soft ground whose second at Te Rapa was better than it looks given a poor start. He drops back to 1400m with a spell under his belt and a first-up second on his record.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Foo Foo | 2 | Samantha Collett | Alex Forbes | 58.5kg | $3.30 |
| 2nd | 14 | Ragtime Rose | 3 | Matthew Cameron | Debbie Sweeney | 54kg | $12.80 |
| 3rd | 9 | Unmistakable | 1 | Matthew Cartwright | Stephen Marsh | 56.5kg | $6.20 |
| 4th | 12 | Succeszor | 8 | Corentin Berge | Tony Pike | 56kg | $4.70 |
| 5th | 7 | Turner | 9 | Jasmine Fawcett | Chris Wood | 58.5kg | $50.70 |
| 6th | 10 | Bivabelle | 4 | Rihaan Goyaram | Ben and Ryan Foote | 54.5kg | $14.30 |
| 7th | 11 | Ellerton | 10 | A Lawson-Carroll | M and K Murdoch | 56.5kg | $81.60 |
| 8th | 5 | Requisite | 12 | Hayley Hassman | K Stead | 57.5kg | $8.00 |
| 9th | 13 | Sultan Of Suave | 7 | Joe Doyle | Stephen Marsh | 56kg | $38.40 |
| 10th | 6 | Ryusen | 5 | George Rooke | P Gerard | 58.5kg | $11.60 |
| 11th | 8 | Etupirka | 14 | Masahiro Hashizume | Stephen Autridge | 56.5kg | $15.20 |
| 12th | 4 | Gospo | 6 | Wiremu Pinn | G Richardson and R Norvall | 58.5kg | $28.40 |
| Scr | 2 | Tiga | 11 | Samantha Collett | Finbarr Leahy | 58.5kg | |
| Scr | 3 | Alayalay | 13 | Elen Nicholas | Bruce Wallace and Grant Cooksley | 58.5kg | |
| Scr | 15 | Dee Mack | 15 | George Rooke | David Greene | 56kg |
She has five starts on wet or soft tracks, led and fought on well last start, and has been competitive in better races than this. A light weight and a barrier that lets her go forward suit this track. She is the most likely winner in a very open race.
On raw ability she has run the strongest races in the field and drops sharply in class. She is first up after 200 days and usually races well back, which this track tends to penalise.
A consistent filly who has run to a solid standard on soft ground and gets a light weight. She sits handy in the run, which suits this track, and the stable is going well locally.
A handy-running type who was only beaten a nose in the placings at this very track and trip on heavy ground. He steps up second-up with improving form and a style that suits the track.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 10 | Glamorgan | 5 | George Rooke | G, D Rogerson and C Isdale | 56kg | $12.00 |
| 2nd | 1 | Divider | 10 | Michael McNab | P Gerard | 58.5kg | $12.00 |
| 3rd | 12 | Lumumba | 8 | Matthew Cameron | Cody Cole | 54kg | $2.70 |
| 4th | 5 | Positive Plus | 2 | Masahiro Hashizume | Shane Crawford | 58.5kg | $27.00 |
| 5th | 7 | Comaneci Gold | 11 | Matthew Cartwright | Stephen Marsh | 56.5kg | $6.00 |
| 6th | 4 | Hyzane | 9 | A Lawson-Carroll | Chris Wood | 58.5kg | $31.00 |
| 7th | 14 | Dressedfor Success | 6 | Bridget Grylls | Shaune Ritchie and Colm Murray | 54kg | $6.50 |
| 8th | 8 | Adamantia | 14 | Tegan Newman | Stephen Marsh | 56.5kg | $71.00 |
| 9th | 13 | Baia Serena | 12 | Joe Doyle | Andrew Forsman | 54kg | $4.50 |
| 10th | 6 | Sixty Bar Eight | 7 | Munna Alam | Tim and Margaret Carter | 58.5kg | $46.00 |
| 11th | 9 | Diamond Bella | 1 | Jasmine Fawcett | Gavin Opie | 56.5kg | $101.00 |
| 12th | 2 | Cisco | 15 | Samantha Collett | Michelle Bradley | 58.5kg | $21.00 |
| 13th | 3 | Ghost In Th'castle | 3 | Lynsey Satherley | Wayne Larsen | 58.5kg | $151.00 |
| Scr | 11 | Rozezina | 13 | Warren Kennedy | Lance Noble | 54kg | |
| Scr | 15 | Dee Mack | 4 | David Greene | 56kg |
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