Mornington tips and results

Our price $6.50 · SP $3.10 · Jamie Mott

Celestial Zara is the best-mapped of the main chances. From barrier 3 she should sit right behind the leader, and horses in that position win this race far more often than those coming from behind. Her wet-track form is genuine with two wins from three, and she was consistently good before her Sandown fourth.

Our price $5.50 · SP $6.00 · Carleen Hefel

She has strong form on good ground and finished off well last time, which suits the expected fast tempo. The weight rise and a jockey with a poor Mornington record temper the enthusiasm, but she is a genuine chance and safe each-way material.

Our price $6.00 · SP $4.00 · Lachlan Neindorf

Our price $4.50 · SP $5.50 · Logan Bates

Naval Academy maps to lead or sit outside the leader from gate five on a track where the front three at the 400m win far more than their share. He has already won here over 1200m, owns four soft-track wins, and his Flemington and Caulfield runs before the slowly-run last start were both close to a winning standard.

Our price $4.00 · SP $3.80 · Jamie Melham

Back to 1200m with the minimum weight and an inside gate, she can settle closer than the speed map suggests, as she did when winning at Caulfield on Soft 6.

Our price $7.50 · SP $5.00 · Jabez Johnstone

Keep Your Cool has not raced since November, but the Maher stable has trialled her twice on soft going at Cranbourne and she has an ideal profile for Mornington: an on-pace mare from barrier four who won here over 1200m and has three wins on rain-affected tracks. Her Caulfield and Cranbourne placings late last year were sound runs at this level.

Our price $9.00 · SP $7.00 · Nadia Daniels

La Astro Chat loves Mornington with two wins from three at the track and distance, and gets in with the lightest weight in the field. His two recent fourths at a lower grade were sound rather than dominant, but he sits on the speed and the track strongly favours that pattern. The risk is a pace battle with Beast Mode.

Our price $9.00 · SP $14.00 · Lachlan Neindorf

She rises in class and gets back, which is a worry at Mornington, but two genuine leaders should ensure a strong tempo that plays to her finish.

Our price $4.50 · SP $4.00 · Ethan Brown

He drops to 56kg, draws to get a soft midfield run, and has the track's leading rider aboard. The class rise and his lack of a soft-track win are the concerns, but the improving trajectory makes him the most likely winner.

Our price $8.00 · SP $7.00 · Daniel Stackhouse

His Caulfield win over 2000m on a Soft 7 was a winning-standard performance in this grade and he beat two of today's rivals that day, including Federer. The Rosehill fourth was a slowly run affair that does not reflect his ability, and he has had a jump-out at Mornington since.

Our price $9.00 · SP $17.00 · Jamie Melham

Bur Dubai is the class runner of the field and has been placed three times from four second-up runs. The Sandown 11th at 1600m was a forgive run: he was ridden quietly from a wide gate in a race far too short for him and was hitting the line. The step to 2000m with 56kg brings him right into it, and he was a close second at Moonee Valley over this trip last spring.

Our price $12.00 · SP $8.00 · Blake Shinn

Lincoln Rocks is the overlay. His second to Taka Speed over 2000m on a Soft 7 at Caulfield was a winning-standard run and he has three wins from eight at the trip. He drops 3.5kg from his last start, where he was one-paced under 61kg over 1800m. The map puts him in the ideal handy spot at Mornington and the moderate tempo will not leave him flat-footed.

Our price $3.00 · SP $2.40 · Jamie Melham

His Sandown win over this trip on a Soft 5 was the standout performance in the field, well clear of Shultzy and Ruakaka Raider, and his prior two runs at Caulfield were also of a winning quality. The class rise is real, but the way he won suggests he was racing below his level. The main risk is getting too far back on a slow tempo at Mornington, though he showed at Sandown he can slide forward mid-race.

Our price $10.00 · SP $21.00 · Adam McCabe

Shultzy is the honest veteran of the field and the form line through Leonchroi is direct. He ran second at Sandown over this trip on a Soft 5, and while beaten nearly five lengths, his own run was of a standard that wins plenty of races. He drops weight, has a huge body of wet-track form and places more often than not. The negatives are his age, the class rise and a get-back style at Mornington.

Our price $14.00 · SP $21.00 · Logan Bates

Ruakaka Raider sits behind Leonchroi and Shultzy on the direct Sandown form but his last two runs were both of a genuine winning standard on wet ground, and he is improving now the stable has settled his gear. He drops weight, handles Soft going and the Bates-Alderson combination wins at a healthy clip. Small each-way play.

Our price $10.00 · SP $14.00 · Jabez Johnstone

She has placed in 4 of 5 starts, won first-up on soft ground under a big weight, and now drops 6.5kg with a claiming apprentice for a stable that gets them ready.

Our price $9.00 · SP $11.00 · Michael Dee

Castle On High keeps turning up at this level on wet tracks and running to a standard that wins plenty of these races. Each-way appeal.

Our price $12.00 · SP $9.00 · Thomas Stockdale

Flying Valley's last-start Sandown second in a Bm84 over 1600m on Soft 7 is the second-best recent piece of form in this race, and he finished a length ahead of Castle On High that day. He is a genuine wet-tracker, has already won at Mornington and races forward, which is exactly what the track rewards. Small each-way play.