Ellerslie tips and results

Our price $4.50 · SP $4.70 · S T Collett

Strong each-way profile. Two placings from two Soft runs and two from two at Ellerslie scream suitability. Last-start Listed nose second and the drop back to 1400m with only 54kg are big ticks. First-up is the query but she placed fresh before. Maps well and the Pike-Collett team is reliable.

Our price $6.00 · SP $8.40 · W F Pinn

Value overlay. The sole start was a solid Soft maiden second only 12 days ago, showing natural ability and condition. Inside draw and 56kg give him every chance to settle handy on a fair Ellerslie Soft surface.

Our price $4.80 · SP $7.70 · S T Collett

Clear form peak with consecutive Open wins, the latest on Soft beating today's main rivals under similar weight. Wet specialist who thrives when moisture present; Ellerslie Soft early-card Open historically open yet his class and finishing strength override map.

Our price $7.50 · SP $5.70 · J Nishizuka

Honest Open performer who finished third in the defining recent form race and carries only 51kg.

Our price $5.00 · SP $5.90 · Jack Taplin

Los Salsero is the clearest form horse. Progressive Frankel 4yo coming off a strong 2nd in BM65 on Heavy and prior 3rd, already a Soft winner, and maps well for a slow 2200m. Youth, wet suitability and upward trend outweigh the step to the trip.

Our price $7.00 · SP $5.50 · Joe Doyle

Jamaican Boy brings the most reliable recent pattern with successive thirds and a perfect draw for a slow-tempo 2200m. Handles Soft, stays well enough and sits ideally.

Our price $8.50 · SP $11.00 · W F Pinn

Novak drops sharply from BM75 into a winnable BM65 with proven Ellerslie 2200m form and genuine Soft credentials. Recent 2nd at the trip range shows he still has the ability.

Our price $9.50 · SP $16.10 · Sam McNab

All That I Am smashed a 2200m Maiden last start under a big weight and is a progressive 4yo with clear stamina. Clear overlay for a horse that can improve again and maps perfectly.

Our price $5.00 · SP $10.10 · M Hashizume

Belle Rebelle maps as the strongest pure form chance. Listed 2nd on Soft at this track plus a 1100m win and first-up success give her clear class and condition edges in a BM65. The drop from black-type is decisive. Barrier 12 is a negative but Ellerslie Soft barrier data shows mid-to-wide draws are viable. Progressive profile and wet-track evidence outweigh the spell.

Our price $5.50 · SP $3.30 · O P Bosson

Solid place foundations in an open Soft sprint.

Our price $8.50 · SP $16.50 · E M Leighton

Live On Air is the clear value runner. Elite Soft stats, a prior first-up win and a 2nd over this course and distance on Soft in stronger grade make her highly suitable.

Our price $5.50 · SP $9.40 · C J Grylls

Most reliable winning chance on pure recent form. Broke maiden emphatically leading on Heavy and maps to control again from barrier 3. Grylls stays aboard and the mare is fit and progressive. Soft is unproven but Ellerslie Soft rides fair; the on-speed profile and current form edge the more exposed maidens.

Our price $8.00 · SP $13.30 · Matthew Cartwright

Solid each-way value. Recent maiden win and prior near-miss show a horse going the right way. Heavy form is a mild positive for Soft 5 and the Marsh/Cartwright pairing is reliable.

Our price $8.00 · SP $7.00 · Sam McNab

Sweet Ice brings genuine Group and Listed form that towers over this BM65. Prior Ellerslie Soft 1600m placings and a big class drop give him upside if he rebounds second-up. Recent flop tempers confidence but the class differential keeps him in the first three.

Our price $9.50 · SP $11.90 · W F Pinn

Jurisprudence is the reliable each-way/value play. Multiple Soft wins, strong Ellerslie record and recent 3rd placings at the level make him a genuine chance.

Our price $2.90 · SP $2.50 · G Rooke

Clearest form horse. Three straight wins capped by a dominant Group 3 at 1200 on Soft, all career starts on Soft, and proven at Ellerslie. Progressive 3yo filly at career peak with the right jockey retained. In a G3 where black-type currency and current form separate the field, she sets the standard and is the most likely winner.

Our price $6.50 · SP $7.60 · M J Mc Nab

Right horse, right track pattern. Listed winner over this course and distance on Soft, and she won at her only prior second-up run. The Taupo Heavy flop is explainable and less relevant on a drying Soft 5.

Our price $7.50 · SP $11.20 · M Hashizume

Value runner. Defeated several of today’s rivals when third in the Taupo Listed on Heavy and already a Soft 1200 winner.

Our price $2.90 · SP $6.70 · M J Mc Nab

Origin Of Love stands clear on pure form via significant class superiority, having won a Group 2 on Soft last start and placed in multiple black-type races. Freshness is the main query but quality and connections override.

Our price $5.50 · SP $8.70 · Jack Taplin

Erin Go Bragh maps as the best genuine BM75 specialist returning. Connections and weight are mild queries but overall form profile ranks him clearly in the top three winning chances on objective assessment.

Our price $9.00 · SP $5.40 · Kyle Wilson-Taylor

Pulsatilla is the standout value.

Our price $9.00 · SP $21.80 · W F Pinn

Second-up and fit after the Te Rapa run; the wide gate is the main query but Ellerslie’s long straight keeps him live for a placing at worst.

Our price $14.00 · SP $31.20 · M Hashizume

Clear overlay. Soft-track warrior with multiple wins and recent G1/G2 placings, including a luckless third last start. Maps well from barrier 8 second-up at his pet distance.

Our price $4.50 · SP $5.20 · M J Mc Nab

Best pure form profile. Second-up, Soft-proven, and already a winner at Ellerslie over 1600 in Open company. Group credentials put him clear of most of this BM75. First-up third was a proper return and the map from barrier 1 suits a patient ride. Justifies favouritism and is the most likely winner on class, conditions and prep pattern.

Our price $11.00 · SP $19.00 · M Cameron

Clear overlay on the established form line.