Morphettville Parks tips and results

Our price $4.50 · SP $7.50 · Harry Grace

With only two genuine leaders and moderate tempo predicted, she should control the race.

Our price $3.50 · SP $3.50 · N Callow

Our price $9.00 · SP $7.00 · Rose Hammond

Fartoo Frisky ticks the specific boxes this race asks: every start has been on soft ground for two placings, including a track-and-distance 3rd here last start when forced wide without cover, and she drops to a featherweight 51kg on a Soft 6.

Our price $4.50 · SP $5.50 · Jake Toeroek

She holds the strongest track/distance/going profile in the race. The catch is a 19% win rate and a running pattern that keeps finding one or two better; with 59kg from the outside gate she is more likely to hit the frame again than break through, hence the place play rather than the top pick.

Our price $7.00 · SP $12.00 · Brooke King

The value overlay.

Our price $9.00 · SP $8.50 · J Noonan

Dropping to BM74 with only 58.5kg, and with the track currently rewarding strong closers, his 2000m Mildura win shows the trip suits.

Our price $6.00 · SP $4.20 · Jake Toeroek

Clear third-elect on class and track affinity. His two wins and two thirds from eight starts at Morphettville Parks 1000m mark him a specialist, and the last-start 7th reads better with the held-up excuse at the 400m.

Our price $7.50 · SP $8.50 · Caitlin Tootell

The clear track-and-conditions horse of the race. His record at Morphettville Parks and on soft ground (25% soft win strike) is the best in the field, he ran on hard late last start, and the recent staying-race bias here has favoured exactly his closing pattern. The wide gate is largely neutral at 2250m. Low win strike rate and a winless jockey-stable combination cap confidence, so he is best used as a place/exotics anchor rather than the win play.

Our price $9.00 · SP $14.00 · Kayla Crowther

The biggest genuine class dropper in the race. Fitness is assured and the soft surface holds no fears. Age, the 59.5kg impost after racing off light weights, and a low win strike make him safer for place purposes, but he must be in the finish at this grade.

Our price $5.50 · SP $5.00 · Connor Murtagh

His overall distance record (2 wins, 1 second from 6) and repeated wet-track placings make the surface and trip ideal.

Our price $6.00 · SP $7.50 · Brooke King

Her recent Morphettville Parks closing efforts are the strongest late-race form in the field and her consistency is elite for this grade, but she is winless on soft ground from five tries and must run down a front-biased track from an 11th-position settle against a moderate tempo. Best used as the anchor place runner.

Our price $13.00 · SP $21.00 · Campbell Rawiller

A pure class-and-conditions overlay. Both SA runs were over a too-sharp 1200m and can be forgiven; today he gets 1400m, a Soft 6 surface matching his two heavy wins, an economical draw, and blinkers off to help him settle.

Our price $6.00 · SP $6.00 · Caitlin Tootell

Maxildo has won back-to-back races at this exact track and trip on soft ground, leading throughout both times, and meets this rise in class 2.5kg better off than his last win. With the only other mapped leader out of form, he should control a moderate tempo on a track where front-half runners hold a strong statistical edge. The wide gate is the main tactical risk over 1550m, and he lacks a sprint if headed.

Our price $8.00 · SP $21.00 · Will Price

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Our price $6.50 · SP $12.00 · Todd Pannell

Synchro is arguably the best horse in the race at this venue, winning 4 of 9 at Morphettville Parks including this exact 1300m trip in stronger BM74 grade. He has won first up before, maps positively just off the two leaders, and gets a jockey who knows him.

Our price $8.00 · SP $8.50 · Campbell Rawiller

His BM72 win on Soft 6 confirms he handles the surface, and a recent trial sharpens him first up (career 1 from 3 fresh).

Our price $9.00 · SP $16.00 · Harry Grace

Flying Brant led in a Group 1 and ran third in a Group 3 last campaign, and now reappears in a Saturday BM70 — a huge concession in grade for a lightly raced, progressive 4-year-old. He is one of only two genuine leaders in a moderate-tempo race at a strongly on-pace track, has won on soft ground, and was placed first up last time in.

Our price $4.50 · SP $4.80 · Jackson Murphy

Her soft-track record (1-2-2 from 5) is the best in the field, and Murphy's 24% track strike rate adds intent. The placing habit is the only real knock, hence measured confidence.