Kempsey tips and results

Our price $8.00 · SP $2.50 · Liberty Smyth

Touchatism showed she retained ability with a solid fourth first-up at Gosford over 1000m on Soft5. She led that race before being run down late, and the second-up record from her limited career includes a placing. The drop to Kempsey country maiden company is suitable, while 55kg is very workable. The clear concerns are her ordinary soft-track statistics and overall inexperience.

Our price $2.50 · SP $2.25 · Liberty Smyth

Fletcher is the one they have to beat. He has improved from 7th to 6th to 5th through three provincial maidens and was still prominent when leading over 1500m at Hawkesbury last start. First-time blinkers should help him hold his position and finish more strongly at the drop back to 1450m. The moderate tempo and Kempsey's on-pace pattern suit his running style. While he remains a maiden after three starts, his class and race shape give him the highest winning chance.

Our price $5.50 · SP $6.50 · B Looker

Rips Law profiles as the most reliable on-pace hope behind the top two. His last two starts produced fourths in country maidens, and his overall soft-track record includes a minor placing. Removing blinkers is a positive for a horse that can overrace, while B Looker is riding confidently.

Our price $12.00 · SP $21.00 · Daniel Smith

The Michael is the value selection. He returned from a spell with a much improved fourth over 1110m on heavy ground, and the move to 1450m second-up should suit his on-pace style. Drawn well inside, he can take up a prominent position in a race that is not expected to be run at a strong tempo.

Our price $2.70 · SP $5.50 · Daniel Smith

He has finished top three in five of his past six completed starts, including a Heavy8 win and a last-start second over 1512m. His Kempsey record includes a win, and barrier 2 is ideal from a map perspective. The concern is the 61.5kg top weight, but his consistency and wet-track credentials offset that in a BM50 field like this.

Our price $7.50 · SP $8.50 · Liberty Smyth

Narukami is not as battle-tested as Smokey Saint or Hotzino, but he is the freshest winner in the race and maps well. He made every post a winner on Heavy8 over 1512m last start, a trip close to today's 1450m. The class rise from Maiden to BM50 is a query, and the lack of Kempsey experience is a negative.

Our price $4.40 · SP $2.90 · B Looker

She is fit, down in class, and should control the race from the front, which is a positive in a small field. However, her soft-track record is ordinary, she has no Kempsey experience, and her career win rate at 1900m is untested. She looks a genuine place chance rather than the most likely winner.

Our price $6.00 · SP $4.40 · Madeline Owen

Felasuvi has already won at Kempsey and strikes her second-up situation where she is one-from-three with another placing. She was doing best work late when third first-up in this exact BM50 grade at Port Macquarie, and now steps down slightly in trip with an inside gate. The 60kg weight is the main concern, but she is a proven on-pace wet-track performer and should run well.

Our price $6.50 · SP $8.50 · O A Dalton

Meteor Mist won her Maiden decisively on Soft 5 and had previously run a strong third over 1000m at Tamworth. The main risks are the rise in grade and the 42-day gap, but she maps to be prominent and may have more upside than her exposed rivals.

Our price $17.00 · SP $31.00 · P Graham

Rivoli Star is an honest BM50 type who won this grade over 1200m on Heavy 9 in June and has a Kempsey placing to his name. Reservations surround his first-up record and a genuine query at 1000m, which is why he is only a value play rather than one of the three stronger selections.

Our price $3.00 · SP $2.60 · O A Dalton

Ken'ker is the clear form anchor. The Kempsey profile rewards horses handy turning for home, which is exactly his pattern.

Our price $6.00 · SP $9.50 · Daniel Smith

She has handled this level before, goes well enough on Soft ground, and has placed twice from five Kempsey starts. The major risk is an outside barrier and a backmarking pattern on a track that clearly favours horses closer to the pace. Still, her class edge gives her a strong place chance behind Ken'ker and Just One Look.

Our price $8.00 · SP $7.00 · Madeline Owen

Youcompleteme is a speculative value play based on race shape. He has genuine early speed from a good draw in a race with minimal pace pressure, and Kempsey's data strongly favours horses hitting the front or settling in the first three turning for home. A soft lead can be dangerous at this level, though his poor Soft-track record remains a serious concern.