Mildura tips and results

Our price $5.00 · SP $2.80 · Neil Farley

The concern is the map: a backmarker in a slow-tempo staying Maiden at a track where closers historically fade.

Our price $10.00 · SP $16.00 · A Mc Cabe

Blinkers go on for the first time, the inside draw and forward pattern fit Mildura's on-pace soft-track lean, and the heavy-track failure at Warrnambool is excusable given stewards noted it failed to handle the going. With only three starts there is scope for improvement over a staying trip.

Our price $2.10 · SP $1.75 · W Gordon

Blinkers return - the gear she wore for both of those near-misses - and barrier 5 lands her in Mildura's most productive soft-track draw band with a handy settling spot. Her wet-track record is unproven, which is the one genuine risk, but her class edge is decisive.

Our price $5.00 · SP $5.50 · R J Hurdle

Our price $12.00 · SP $41.00 · Alice Kennedy

The value proposition. Bouzy's Babe has hit the frame five times from 11 starts, ran third fresh at Port Augusta and has already placed at 1400m on a Soft 5 while racing prominently.

Our price $7.00 · SP $8.50 · Alana Kelly

A speed-and-stable play rather than a form play. Both her race starts have been at 1100m and 1300m where she has stopped badly; the drop to 1008m plus first-time cross-over nose band gives her a genuine chance to sustain the speed. Placing risk is real, so place only.

Our price $10.00 · SP $16.00 · Samantha Noble

Each-way is the sensible structure given the backmarker pattern is against the track bias.

Our price $4.50 · SP $8.00 · W Gordon

His soft record of 4:1-1-0 gives him proven wet credentials.

Our price $9.00 · SP $21.00 · Alana Kelly

Her two Mildura runs over this trip in this exact grade produced a second and a third from the front, and she returns to the map that suits from barrier 5 with just 57kg. A non-winning profile keeps confidence modest, so each-way is the play.

Our price $5.50 · SP $5.00 · R J Hurdle

The volume of first-time gear — blinkers off, tongue tie, cross-over nose band, front bandages — signals genuine stable intent first up, and the O'Shea/Hurdle pairing is two from two. Against him is a first-up record of three starts without a win and a map that has him settling seventh when this track's soft-track bias rewards those on the speed. Strong place claims with upside.

Our price $7.00 · SP $7.50 · W Gordon

The best-mapped runner in the race, drawn three and expected to sit outside the leaders in third, which is exactly the shape Mildura's soft-track profile rewards. The obvious knock is one win from 26 starts, which makes him a far more reliable placing prospect than a winning one, but the tactical advantage is real and he is competitive at the weights on 57kg.

Our price $5.00 · SP $14.00 · Jack Martin

Overpriced on the strength of one bad run at Murtoa where he struck interference at the jump and over-raced on a Heavy 8. Two starts back he won over this exact trip on a Soft 7 at Donald, hard held four wide, and he has already run second at Mildura.

Our price $3.60 · SP $3.40 · Alice Kennedy

Our price $8.00 · SP $8.50 · B Vale

The only genuine leader in the race from a soft barrier, and Mildura on rain-affected ground has historically been a strong on-pace track with runners settling 1-3 winning at over 20%. She ran second over course and distance in this same grade a month ago and has a Soft 7 win in July. Controls her own fate, which is worth plenty at BM56.

Our price $6.50 · SP $15.00 · Logan McNeil

The 11 dollars overrates his last-start Murtoa flop, where stewards explicitly noted he failed to handle a Heavy 8.

Our price $3.40 · SP $5.50 · W Gordon

The strongest recent formline in the race. Barrier 1, retained rider and a suitable 2008m trip make him the most reliable winner.

Our price $4.00 · SP $4.20 · Jack Martin

His Mildura 2000m second in August was the best raw performance any of these has produced at the trip, and the Murtoa failure is forgiven by a slow start, a wide run and interference at the 400m. Soft ground suits and barrier 5 is the optimum draw band here.

Our price $9.00 · SP $18.00 · B Vale

The overlay of the race. The cold jockey statistics and stamina questions beyond 2000m justify the each-way approach.