Ellerslie tips and results

Our price $4.50 · SP $4.40 · Opie Bosson

He races handily, which suits the track bias, and he is a regular placegetter at Ellerslie. Two queries: he has never won on soft ground and drops to a sprint trip he has not tried, so he is more a place than a win play.

Our price $7.00 · SP $23.00 · Masahiro Hashizume

Leading is exactly what pays at Ellerslie sprints, so the speed map suits.

Our price $12.00 · SP $13.00 · Ashlee Strawbridge

Placed second in two of her past three runs, both on soft ground over 1200m, and was runner-up over this course and distance when held up in the straight. The 2kg claim lightens her load. Her last run came with an excuse. The main worry is a stable that has not been winning.

Our price $8.50 · SP $17.00 · Masahiro Hashizume

Comes back to maiden grade after placing in a much stronger handicap over this trip. She handles soft ground and races on the pace, which suits.

Our price $13.00 · SP $35.00 · A Lawson-Carroll

She produced the strongest performance in this line-up last start, closing hard after being taken back from a wide gate on heavy going.

Our price $3.80 · SP $3.60 · Craig Grylls

Shares favouritism and has the most convincing recent form: she won her latest over 2000m on soft ground, settling handy and finishing best of the field. Drawn inside for the leading stable, whose jockey has already won twice on her, she maps to sit third or fourth in a steady tempo — ideal for a track that rewards on-pace runners. The only query is a first start at 2100m.

Our price $7.00 · SP $9.00 · Sam McNab

A genuine on-pace stayer who has run to a winning standard at this trip on soft ground, including a course-and-distance success here. Both recent runs came after racing wide and can be forgiven, and with a claimer aboard he is well weighted to roll forward and give a bold sight.

Our price $8.50 · SP $10.00 · Masahiro Hashizume

Improving mare who produced one of the stronger recent runs in the field when third over 2000m last time, closing well from midfield. Drawn in the favourable middle band for this trip and her run style keeps her handy enough for a steady tempo.

Our price $4.80 · SP $4.40 · Michael McNab

Second-up after a sound fresh run and the most reliable on-pace runner in the field — exactly the profile this Ellerslie circuit rewards on soft ground. His recent performances rate the strongest here and he settles handy from barrier eight, with Michael McNab's fine record at the track a plus. The knocks are a modest winning tally and no soft-track victory yet, but the form and race shape both point his way.

Our price $7.50 · SP $4.80 · Joe Doyle

A class dropper whose two career wins both came here on soft ground, and the inside draw should let him settle prominently in a race that rewards forward positions.

Our price $13.00 · SP $21.00 · George Rooke

He is a consistent, handy-running horse who finished second last start and should get the right position from a good middle draw in a race expected to lack early pressure. He has won in open company and handles soft ground.

Our price $3.60 · SP $6.00 · Chris Dell

The one to beat on setup and form. She settles handy, exactly where you want to be over this trip at Ellerslie, and the projected slow tempo should let her control or sit right on the pace. She is proven on soft ground at this track, a Listed winner here and a Group 1 runner-up on rain-affected going, and she has won and placed in both second-up runs. The step back from a mile is the query.

Our price $6.50 · SP $6.00 · Joe Doyle

An in-form mare who has won her last three, all by leading, and she lands in the perfect spot to dictate from a good draw. Suited by the front-runners' bias and a slow tempo. The knocks are a big rise in class — her only Group start was poor — and two unplaced runs on soft ground, so she needs to prove she handles the going at this level.

Our price $11.00 · SP $13.00 · Matthew Cartwright

She goes well fresh, having won first-up before, and she has a sound record at Ellerslie including a win over this course and trip on soft ground. The 200-day break and a form taper late last prep are the risks.

Our price $4.20 · SP $6.70 · Michael McNab

The clear form pick. He resumed last prep with a soft-track win over this trip, ran to a winning standard, then went close in a Listed race at Otaki. He settles on the speed, which is exactly where you want to be at Ellerslie on rain-affected ground, and the inside gate helps. Class and consistency give him the strongest winning chance. The one query is his lack of an Ellerslie win, but this is his race to lose.

Our price $10.00 · SP $18.70 · Warren Kennedy

She looks the one to set the tempo from a handy gate, and a moderate pace on soft ground at Ellerslie is exactly the set-up that rewards a leader. She has a strong soft-track record and drops out of Group 3 company.

Our price $4.50 · SP $3.00 · Wiremu Pinn

The query is the first try at 1400m and an unplaced record at this track, so she is a strong place and win hope rather than a standout.

Our price $12.00 · SP $19.00 · Matthew Cameron

A Group 3 winner only two starts back who is likely to lead, which matters on an Ellerslie surface that strongly favours on-pace runners in soft going. She has won three of her last four, all on rain-affected ground, and is a course winner.

Our price $4.30 · SP $6.00 · Michael McNab

Won at this track and trip on soft ground last start, settling off the pace and finishing strongly. Has three wins on rain-affected going and an excellent Ellerslie record. Carries top weight of 60kg now but is a progressive four-year-old and the stable's leading rider is aboard. A repeat of last start's effort should be enough.

Our price $4.80 · SP $4.60 · Craig Grylls

A Listed winner dropping sharply into this grade. Has won two of four on soft tracks and races handily, which suits around Ellerslie. Never started here and drew wide, but her strike rate and class point to a big run. Hard to beat and the clear class runner of the field.