Eagle Farm tips and results

Our price $2.80 · SP $1.75 · Cejay Graham

The concern is that everything he has shown was on firm ground, and the rider booking is the weakest among the main chances.

Our price $3.00 · SP $3.40 · Ben E Thompson

Taravia is the clear form horse. He has a strong 2200m record, won on a heavy track at his only try and maps to control the race from barrier six under a slow tempo. The weight rise is the main query, but the class drop more than compensates.

Our price $10.00 · SP $13.00 · Anna Roper

Amelioration is a progressive mare who has won her last two and ran to a winning standard for this grade when taking out the 2200m Class 2 at the Sunshine Coast. She has everything the heavy-track profile asks for: an inside gate, a featherweight after the claim, a handy racing pattern and plenty of soft-track form.

Our price $10.00 · SP $10.00 · Daniel Moor

Trusty Bandit is a horse in form, having won his last two including a strong finish at this track over a longer trip. He has won on heavy ground, carries a light weight and keeps the jockey who won on him. The concern is the likely slow tempo, which suits the on-pace runners rather than a horse who may settle behind midfield, and the stable's thin record at Eagle Farm.

Our price $6.50 · SP $7.50 · Jett Newman

On a Heavy 9 the form that matters is wet form, and this gelding has the best of it. He bolted in on a Heavy 10 at Ballina over 1300m with 59kg, a run that stands up as the strongest wet effort in this field, then ran to a winning standard in an Open Handicap when wide throughout last start. He races on the speed with a tiny weight and gets a fair draw.

Our price $11.00 · SP $11.00 · Jade Hampson

A mare who ticks the heavy-track boxes without the class credentials of the top three. She has won both starts on heavy going, races on the pace and carries a feather weight. The worry is that her last two wins came at country level in modest fashion and she now jumps straight into a Saturday metro field with a jockey short of winning form.

Our price $6.50 · SP $3.90 · Jace McMurray

Astern Effort finally broke through at Doomben last start after a string of placings, and the way he did it suggests he was ready to graduate. His second on a Soft 7 track earlier in the year shows wet ground does not worry him, and he draws well with a light weight.

Our price $6.50 · SP $6.00 · Jag Guthmann-Chester

His two wet-track runs as a two-year-old were both excellent, including a heavy-track maiden win that was the best wet performance anyone here has produced. He gets weight relief as a three-year-old and is second up, the stage at which he won last time in.

Our price $6.50 · SP $9.00 · Bella Youngberry

Hell To Pay fits the heavy-track template best: proven on wet ground, races forward, light weight, and he ran one of the better recent races in this field at Doomben last week when third from the front. He drops in class and has won his only try at the mile.

Our price $9.00 · SP $12.00 · Jett Newman

Perfect Play is the model of consistency and his forward racing pattern suits a Heavy 9 at Eagle Farm. A solid saver in the first three with the claim bringing him down to a handy weight.

Our price $13.00 · SP $18.00 · Ben E Thompson

Naval Seal is a known wet-tracker with a heavy win and placings, and his Gold Coast second in September was the standout recent run in this race. He has also won over this track and distance.

Our price $7.00 · SP $6.00 · Ben E Thompson

He has been racing keenly and not finishing off, but the softer company and an in-form Ben Thompson can help him settle on the fence from barrier 1.

Our price $13.00 · SP $18.00 · Emily Pozman

She won on heavy ground over this trip eight days ago, has a win from her only start at Eagle Farm, and will be ridden forward with just 54kg after the claim in a race where the lead is up for grabs. Even so, a fit, light-weighted heavy-track winner on the speed is overpriced in a field with few proven wet performers.

Our price $8.00 · SP $11.00 · Tahlia Fenlon

Zoureka ticks the heavy-track boxes that most of this field cannot. She draws the rail, carries the lightest weight, and the map has her as the lone leader in a moderately run race. She did fold late over 1200m here on debut when taken on, so an uncontested lead is important.

Our price $6.50 · SP $7.00 · Angela Jones

Stiktodascrypt ticks the heavy-track boxes: a dominant Heavy 9 win over this exact distance, the lightest weight in the field, an inside gate and enough early speed to be in the first four. He is a lightly raced gelding still on the way up. The concerns are real, though.

Our price $10.00 · SP $7.00 · Jett Newman

Royal Commodore is the value runner. He was a dominant sprinter earlier this year, winning three in a row including a bolt-in at the Sunshine Coast over 1000m on soft ground, and he has four wins from six wet-track starts. His Rosehill failure can be forgiven as he refused to settle. Reunited with Jett Newman, who is two from two on him, and down to 51kg, he can roll forward from the wide gate at a chute start that does not punish outside draws.

Our price $3.60 · SP $2.60 · Emily Lang

She has won four of nine, placed in every run this campaign and was beaten under a length last Saturday. Her soft-track record is perfect from two starts and the Gollan yard knows this track well.

Our price $5.50 · SP $5.00 · Tahlia Fenlon

Divine Source brings the one asset nobody else has, uncontested early speed. With 52kg and barrier 4 she should find the front and set a moderate pace on the heavy ground, the ideal scenario for a leader. Her first-up Doomben win was sound and the stable is firing. The concerns are a rise in class, an untested heavy-track record and a weaker second-up pattern.

Our price $6.00 · SP $6.00 · Andrew Mallyon

Mercurial Lady is the value runner. Her win here on Heavy 8 ground under 60kg in May was the best single performance by any horse in this race and she now carries 3.5kg less from barrier 2 on similar ground.

Our price $6.00 · SP $9.00 · Jace McMurray

Esjay has the class edge in this field with Listed placings and a 30% win strike rate, and he thrives on wet ground with six wins from 13 starts on soft or heavy. His Doomben Open mile win in July came with today's jockey, who is unbeaten on him, and his Members Cup third last start was full of merit after being held up. He draws to sit handy on the fence, which is where you want to be on a heavy track at a moderate tempo.

Our price $10.00 · SP $10.00 · Taylor Marshall

Liberty Park is the improver in the race. He has won both starts this preparation, and his Doomben mile win was good enough to be competitive in Open company. He handles wet ground, with five wins on soft or heavy from 11 tries, and carries only 52kg, which counts on a Heavy 9.