Ascot tips and results

Our price $2.80 · SP $4.60 · Lucy Fiore

Albirex produced the best run in this field at his only start, sitting back in fifth, getting held up on the turn and still running down Malastar to win by close to a length. The four-kilogram weight swing against him is real, but he was the superior finisher two weeks ago and Lucy Fiore is riding in excellent form.

Our price $3.00 · SP $2.00 · Holly Watson

Malastar led all the way on debut and fought on well when Albirex ran her down, and she meets that horse two kilograms better off with the inside draw and no genuine rival for the lead. Those factors make her a strong winning chance, but she still has to reverse form with a horse that finished over the top of her when held up, and the jockey booking is a concern.

Our price $8.00 · SP $8.00 · Patrick Carbery

Defend The Nation was slowly away on debut, raced near the back and laid in up the straight, yet still made good late ground into fourth behind Albirex and Malastar. His closing effort was clearly the strongest of the beaten runners and the run reached a placing standard. From barrier two with a clean start he should settle midfield and be running on hard late.

Our price $7.00 · SP $6.50 · Jarrad Noske

My Danny Boy is the best-mapped runner in the field. He draws barrier 3, likes to sit close to the speed, and the expected leader is a first-up seven-year-old with a poor fresh record. He finished off well at Bunbury last start after losing ground at the jump and won second up last preparation. The form is maiden and country level, so his class is the question, but the race shape gives him every chance to run a place.

Our price $9.00 · SP $18.00 · Patrick Carbery

Fantaxtic is the overlay. Last start he raced three wide the whole way from a wide gate here and faded, but was still close to the winner.

Our price $3.30 · SP $2.70 · Holly Nottle

Barrier 9 is a worry, but his gate speed should get him to the front or close to it, and handy runners dominate here.

Our price $7.00 · SP $7.50 · Natika Riordan

Has won at this track and distance on Good ground and gets a very light weight with the benefit of a 3kg claim. Barrier 3 suits and she has run solidly in every start at this class.

Our price $2.60 · SP $3.00 · Chris Parnham

The class runner of the field. He produced the standout performance of any horse here when he came from last and swept past them over the mile at this track a fortnight ago, and he meets a similar field again. The knocks are that he steps to 1800m for the first time, goes up in the weights and has drawn out, so he will have to do it the hard way once more. Still the one to beat.

Our price $3.00 · SP $2.80 · Steven Parnham

Rogue Ruler has run to a winning standard in each of his last three starts against better three-year-olds, kept coming at Ascot last week over 1400m and now meets older horses in a restricted grade with 54kg from barrier 2. The step to a mile is the main unknown, but his racing pattern (settling fourth with cover) is exactly what wins here.

Our price $6.50 · SP $5.50 · Lucy Fiore

Javelin Strike has won his last two, including a gritty Ascot win over 1400m after racing three wide without cover. The question is the mile, where his only recent attempt saw him fade, though he was knocked about early that day. Fiore stays on and the stable has a strong strike rate with her. Drawn to be handy from barrier 5.

Our price $4.20 · SP $2.90 · Chris Parnham

Abissi's last-start win here was dominant and his form line is the strongest in the race. The concern is the map: a slow tempo and a back-field position are exactly what Ascot punishes. If the pace lifts, or Parnham gets him closer, he is a major threat.

Our price $11.00 · SP $26.00 · Natasha Faithfull

She should settle handy in a race with a slow tempo, which is the profile Ascot rewards. The step to 2200m is a question, but her record at the track and distance is decent.

Our price $6.50 · SP $19.00 · Clint Johnston-Porter

Her best runs at this track and distance rate with anything in this race and she has won over this trip at Ascot. The pace on should suit her closing style.

Our price $7.50 · SP $8.50 · Jefferson Tsang

The step up to metro company and the fast pace are real questions, but he has genuine ability and can run a place. He is not a certain winner at this level.

Our price $5.50 · SP $7.00 · Holly Nottle

She is first-up from a long break, but her first-up record is strong and the trials show she is fit. The rider knows her.

Our price $6.50 · SP $5.50 · Brad Parnham

She settles near the tail, and with only a moderate pace on she has to make up a lot of ground on a drawn-wide-ish field.

Our price $7.50 · SP $11.00 · Jason Lyon

Boy Crush was tucked away behind the speed in the Max Simmonds, had to barge into clear running and was only narrowly beaten. He draws perfectly to repeat that ride pattern from barrier 4 on a track that rewards handy inside runners, and he meets the winner on better terms.

Our price $9.00 · SP $13.00 · Holly Watson

Big Red Zoom has done nothing wrong, winning a Bunbury maiden impressively and then holding off the swoopers in the Max Simmonds Listed. He is the type still on the rise and his form is strong enough to be a top-three hope. The wide alley is the main obstacle because it will cost him position or ground, and that keeps him behind the better-drawn Boy Crush despite beating him last time.

Our price $8.00 · SP $11.00 · Shaun O'Donnell

He's A Machino gave everything from a wide run in the Max Simmonds and kept coming when he could not accelerate. With a kinder draw he maps to sit third in the run on a track where on-pace runners hold a significant edge.

Our price $7.50 · SP $8.50 · Holly Nottle

Our price $6.00 · SP $4.80 · Jefferson Tsang

The class runner of the field, a Listed winner and Classic placegetter dropping into a midweek-standard handicap. He has the best raw ability here and an outstanding strike rate at Ascot, and his 1400m run in the autumn behind stakes horses was the equal of anything in this race. The knock is the map: he will be near last from gate eleven in a race where the track strongly favours handy runners.

Our price $12.00 · SP $11.00 · Shaun McGruddy

An honest, race-fit six-year-old who won at this class and distance last time out, settling handy and quickening best late. That is exactly the profile that succeeds here, and the draw gives him every chance to sit third or fourth with cover.