Flemington tips and results

Our price $4.50 · SP $7.00 · Blake Shinn

The class runner in the field. Spywire led the Schillaci Stakes before giving way late to Group 1 sprinters, and that run is the strongest recent form line here. He drops sharply in grade to an Open handicap but inherits the 59.5kg top weight, which is the main query over a short 1000m. Blake Shinn is in form, barrier 1 offers a slight edge on the straight, and a fast tempo lets him sit off the speed.

Our price $10.00 · SP $10.00 · Ethan Brown

A veteran whose raw results undersell him. He has the gate speed to take a position from barrier 4 and Ethan Brown has already won on him.

Our price $6.00 · SP $7.50 · James McDonald

Written Empire has the ideal profile for how this race should be run. He will land in the first four from barrier 1 behind a weak leader, giving him first run on the closers in a race where tempo should be only moderate. His Caulfield third behind True Rebel was sound after doing work on the pace. Strong place chance and live winner.

Our price $6.00 · SP $4.40 · Craig Williams

Joely brings the strongest black-type form, having been placed in a Group 2 at this track three weeks ago and winning her maiden impressively. The filly allowance is a real edge in a tight weight scale and Craig Williams is a plus at Flemington. The concern is the map. She will settle near the rear and the pace looks slow, so she needs the leaders to tire or the race to be run more genuinely than expected.

Our price $7.00 · SP $8.00 · Ethan Brown

Hierarchy is the overlay in the race. He finished behind True Rebel and Written Empire at Caulfield but did so from a hopeless position on the rail, running home well once clear. As a Dubawi colt out of Group 1 winner Colette, the stretch to 2040m should bring him into his own. Each-way value.

Our price $4.50 · SP $2.45 · Ethan Brown

Angels Fury is the obvious improver. She was beaten only when lame, and her Caulfield handicap win doing it tough three wide was a genuinely good performance for her age. The Maher stable has her ready with two jump-out wins, she draws low and will race in the first few in a race where the on-pace horses should get their chance. The question is whether her wet-track form transfers to firm ground at Listed level, which is why she sits behind Chayan on class, but she is a clear second pick and the one most likely to upset.

Our price $2.60 · SP $3.50 · Logan Bates

His Schillaci win two weeks ago was the standout run in this field and he has consistently run faster than any rival at Group level, including a William Reid Stakes win on a good track. With Mazu likely to lead he can sit second and pounce, and the moderate tempo suits him rather than the swoopers.

Our price $7.00 · SP $7.00 · William Pike

Rey Magnerio is the forgotten horse. His Schillaci run was far better than the finishing position suggests after being held up approaching the 200m, and he was a close second in The Quokka before that. Flemington is his best track with two wins and four placings from seven starts here, and he lifts second up.

Our price $10.00 · SP $11.00 · Billy Egan

Feroce is a genuine on-pace runner whose Sir Rupert Clarke effort was close to the standard needed here, and his Toorak flop came from a hopeless barrier wide on the track. He draws wide again, but Flemington's long straight and true rail reduce the penalty.

Our price $12.00 · SP $17.00 · Jye McNeil

Sun God has been running honest races in Group 1 company this campaign without any luck, and his Toorak effort was a sound run ruined when the winner barged through and stopped his momentum. He has a strong record at the mile, handles Good ground and should settle fourth or fifth from a good barrier, close enough to pounce if the pace steadies.

Our price $12.00 · SP $17.00 · Lachlan Neindorf

She gets back and relies on luck, and the moderate tempo is against her, but the Flemington straight has already proven her ally and barrier 1 lets her save every yard.

Our price $4.50 · SP $6.50 · James McDonald

Pinhole is the form horse. The moderate tempo and his get-back style are the concerns, but the long Flemington straight suits him and he showed at Caulfield he can overcome a slow early position. James McDonald riding for Chris Waller is a potent combination.

Our price $5.50 · SP $5.50 · Craig Williams

He is a lightly raced four-year-old with five wins from eight starts, and his Metropolitan second behind Juja Kibo was full of merit given he met interference twice in the straight. He now gets 2.5kg weight relief from that rival and gets back onto good ground where he is four from five. The wide barrier is the main worry.

Our price $18.00 · SP $26.00 · William Pike

Future History is the only runner with a leading record in a race where the speed map predicts a moderate tempo. He should cross from the wide gate and dictate without pressure, and that is often the recipe for a bold showing from a tough old stayer at Flemington. His Herbert Power fourth behind Pinhole was a genuine effort and he has won at this track and distance before.

Our price $4.50 · SP $4.80 · Rachel King

Assessed on form alone, Warwoven is the most likely winner. With 49.5kg and a slow tempo likely, he should be in the right spot at the right time.

Our price $5.00 · SP $5.00 · Craig Williams

His Queen Elizabeth win was elite and his flawless third-up record points to him peaking today, while his handy racing pattern is a plus in a slow race.

Our price $10.00 · SP $12.00 · Jamie Melham

Blind Raise is the value runner. He was softened up in front in the Caulfield Guineas and still held second clear of the rest, and his Prelude win was a top-class performance. In a race that lacks a committed leader beyond Light Infantry Man, he can take a soft sit on the pace with only 49.5kg, and his staying pedigree suggests the trip will suit.

Our price $8.00 · SP $4.40 · Declan Bates

Too Darn Discreet is the proven stayer of the top group, with three wins from three starts at 2000m including a strong Flemington win in April. Her mile runs this preparation have been sound and the step up in trip is what she wants. The 60kg top weight and her habit of getting back are real concerns if the pace is slow, but the Flemington straight suits her finishing style. A genuine place chance who could win if the leaders overdo it.