Punt like a Pro, without the know!
Victoria · Saturday 24 October 2026
Our top pick won 2 of 7 races at Yarra Valley. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
top pick wonanother tip wonno tip won
Velocite Belle is the form pick. She can use the short run into the bend, and her Mornington fourth, when she led and was still fighting, is the best performance any of these have produced. The drop back in trip and 54kg help her finish it off.
Exacting Standard is the horse with the most relevant evidence: a half-length second at Bendigo over 1000m on good, beaten only when the leader lifted, and that was his first run in. He has since won a 1000m jump-out and the heavy failure can be ignored on today's going. He should sit just off Velocite Belle.
Barrier three helps, and the latest jump-out was a win, though that was on synthetic and the earlier turf trial was only sixth. There is no public form to show she can begin, settle and quicken.
She is a Zoustar filly drawn one, and she won a Flemington jump-out over 800m on good in a time that stacks up with other trial winners in this race. Each-way only.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Confidential Girl | 3 | Carleen Hefel | Ciaron Maher | 56kg | $2.00 |
| 2nd | 2 | Exacting Standard | 6 | Teodore Nugent | S Nichols and H Black | 58kg | $4.40 |
| 3rd | 7 | Velocite Belle | 5 | Nadia Daniels | Anthony and Sam Freedman | 54kg | $8.50 |
| 4th | 1 | Aerial Pursuit | 2 | Damien Thornton | Anthony and Sam Freedman | 58kg | $19.00 |
| 5th | 3 | Quarters | 4 | Joe Bowditch | Mark and Levi Kavanagh | 58.5kg | $21.00 |
| 6th | 6 | Skyblock | 1 | Holly Durnan | Leon, Troy Corstens and Will Larkin | 56kg | $31.00 |
| 7th | 5 | Madame Petite | 7 | Fred W Kersley | Lindsey Smith | 56kg | $4.20 |
Second-up, 15 days after a Ballarat 1000m second on good ground, he sat wide without cover and still finished within a length. Four tries at the trip have yielded two seconds and a third, with two placings from five on good. Shepherdson has five winners from his last 20.
La Velocita has been the most reliable placer in the race, finishing third at Cranbourne twice in October over 1200m on good ground after racing on the speed, and third at Moe when held up. She drops to 54.5kg with Lamont's claim and draws barrier 2, eight days between runs. The query is the trip: five starts around 1000m have brought no placings, and she is still a maiden.
Barrier 5 is fine and Dunn rides him again. He is still the predicted backmarker, and this chute start rewards early position, so he needs a clear crack at them in a moderate tempo.
She was beaten under a length at Bairnsdale over 1000m twelve days ago after sitting just off the leaders, and she was fourth there on good three runs back when she had every chance. From barrier 6 she maps to settle on the pace, which fits this moderate 1009m, and Lachlan King rides with a tongue tie added.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Real Heir | 10 | Fred W Kersley | Michael Shepherdson | 59.5kg | $3.30 |
| 2nd | 11 | Silver Snow | 5 | Dylan Dunn | Daniel Williams | 59.5kg | $6.00 |
| 3rd | 7 | La Velocita | 2 | Ruby Lamont | Michael Kent | 54.5kg | $3.50 |
| 4th | 6 | Janie's Got A Gun | 1 | Remi Tremsal | Rebecca Waymouth | 57.5kg | $18.00 |
| 5th | 4 | Charleanor | 6 | Lachlan King | Michael Huglin | 57.5kg | $26.00 |
| 6th | 3 | Sheer Panic | 8 | Joe Bowditch | Colin Scott | 59.5kg | $18.00 |
| 7th | 5 | Fanfire | 7 | Jake Noonan | Julius Sandhu | 57.5kg | $5.50 |
| 8th | 9 | Russian Tide | 4 | Lauren Burke | S Nichols and H Black | 55.5kg | $21.00 |
| 9th | 8 | Luscombe | 13 | Nadia Daniels | Logan McGill | 55.5kg | $31.00 |
| 10th | 1 | Eleven Herbs | 3 | Mitchell Aitken | Susie Wells | 59.5kg | $14.00 |
| Scr | 10 | Xuxa Kiss | 14 | Clifford Brown | 57.5kg | ||
| Scr | 12 | Bold Amore | 11 | Leon, Troy Corstens and Will Larkin | 59.5kg | ||
| Scr | 13 | Powershare | 9 | Ron Stephens | 59.5kg | ||
| Scr | 14 | Baltic | 12 | Vincent Hall | 57.5kg |
Sentaloa is the form horse in a thin maiden. A moderate tempo and a weak designated leader give a horse with his early speed time to find a spot despite barrier 12. The rise to 1968m is the query.
Zverev maps to sit right behind a moderate pace from barrier 1, which is the run to have in a country maiden with no reliable leader. His Seymour debut on soft ground was a sound third, and the Tarzino breeding points to this longer trip. The Pakenham synthetic second-up run was plain and one-paced, he has never raced on good ground, and both jockey and stable are quiet.
Nightowl deserves favouritism on exposed form: five seconds from 12 starts, three of them on good, and he has already been competitive around 2000m. The Geelong sixth three weeks ago came from last in a strongly run race and was a better effort than the 11-length margin suggests. He is still a five-year-old maiden who lays in, the visors come off for near-side blinkers, and the map has him back in a race that may not be run hard enough to bring him into the finish. He is the place runner in the race.
Whatwashethinking is the only runner with form at this track, a record of three starts for a second, and he maps on the pace in a race without a strong leader. The 3kg claim leaves him on 56.5kg, and last time at Geelong he held his ground into fifth on a good track after tracking in midfield. He has been ordinary at times and has never raced at 1968m, with most of his racing around 1200m, so the trip is a real test.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Nightowl | 4 | Brad Rawiller | Andrew Noblet | 59.5kg | $2.20 |
| 2nd | 10 | Sentaloa | 12 | Damien Thornton | Matt Laurie | 57kg | $8.00 |
| 3rd | 8 | Kissattack | 13 | Dylan Dunn | Danny O'Brien | 57.5kg | $21.00 |
| 4th | 5 | Bling Baby | 7 | Joe Bowditch | Brian McGrath | 57.5kg | $14.00 |
| 5th | 2 | Molesworth | 8 | Jackson Radley | Ben, Will and JD Hayes | 59.5kg | $13.00 |
| 6th | 4 | Zverev | 1 | Jake Noonan | Greg Eurell | 59.5kg | $4.40 |
| 7th | 6 | Camegitchee | 5 | Lauren Burke | S Nichols and H Black | 55.5kg | $91.00 |
| 8th | 11 | Whatwashethinking | 10 | Liana Wood | Noni Shelton | 56.5kg | $12.00 |
| 9th | 1 | Mehsun | 3 | Fred W Kersley | Chris Waller | 59.5kg | $9.50 |
| 10th | 9 | Threewinesin | 2 | Melea Castle | Pat Carey and Harris Walker | 57.5kg | $61.00 |
| Scr | 7 | Hot Opera | 6 | Luke Oliver | 57.5kg | ||
| Scr | 12 | Startin'sumthin' | 9 | Nelson Smyth | 57.5kg | ||
| Scr | 13 | Ask The Captain | 11 | Ernie Francese | 59.5kg |
The nine-year-old has won his last two, both near this trip: a dominant Wodonga win after taking control, and an Echuca handicap win after racing wide without cover. He gets in light with Olivia East's claim and has five wins from 31 on good. He maps midfield but has been going forward.
Up And Under is the map horse. He is the only natural leader and the race looks slowly run, which favours a horse that can control it. Six days ago he was a close fourth at Moe in a similar handicap after sitting just off the pace, and he has two seconds and a third from seven starts around this distance. Dylan Dean has won on him once from two rides.
He drops slightly in class, draws barrier two and was held up from the 300m when sixth at Moe last start. His Sale run in stronger company showed he can travel into a race at this level before he was checked. He has a win and a placing from eight on good.
Golden Hips is the value. At 13 he is longer than a horse with Nadia Daniels, a two-kilo claim and blinkers back on should be. He has a second and two thirds from three starts at the distance, made ground from last at Mornington in a race run on the speed, and won a Sale jump-out since. The gap is thirty days and Damien Walkley is cold.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 6 | Surely Special | 6 | Olivia East | Chris Davis | 57kg | $2.30 |
| 2nd | 4 | Up And Under | 11 | Dylan Dean | David Noonan | 60kg | $8.00 |
| 3rd | 1 | Devine Grunt | 2 | Joe Bowditch | Aaron Laing | 60kg | $4.60 |
| 4th | 8 | Avonview | 12 | Melea Castle | Damien Walkley | 58kg | $15.00 |
| 5th | 2 | Golden Hips | 3 | Nadia Daniels | Damien Walkley | 58kg | $10.00 |
| 6th | 9 | Palace Winter | 9 | Jake Noonan | Raymond Mathews | 58kg | $16.00 |
| 7th | 10 | Pharoah's Daughter | 1 | Mitchell Aitken | Ben Brisbourne | 58kg | $8.00 |
| 8th | 5 | Grunnettan | 13 | Lachlan King | Rhys Archard | 59.5kg | $20.00 |
| 9th | 7 | Opus | 7 | Adam McCabe | Simone Manne | 58.5kg | $26.00 |
| 10th | 11 | Anchor Down | 5 | Jackie Beriman | Don Dwyer | 57kg | $91.00 |
| Scr | 3 | Treasury Place | 10 | Jamie Edwards | 60kg | ||
| Scr | 12 | Ain't Tellin | 4 | Brendon Newport | 54kg | ||
| Scr | 13 | Blonde Suspect | 8 | Chris Davis | 54kg |
Shooting For Stars is the form horse. She has been competing in stronger races than this restricted 56 and keeps running to a level that wins country sprints, including a heavy-track win and close placings through August and a honest fourth in BM70 mares company last start.
Magnea is a genuine 1000m horse on top of the ground: both wins have come at the trip and both on good. She resumes with a trial win and draws the fence, and Lachlan King is in form.
Wind Dreamer keeps turning up in these restricted sprints. She led and was only nailed late at Bairnsdale three starts back, then held a forward spot in BM66 company on the synthetic and again at Ballarat, where the run of the race went against her. She maps midfield from barrier 6 with enough early speed to be handy if the two on-pace horses overdo it. Reliable for a place, short of a top winning profile on good ground.
Every win has come around 1000m, barrier 2 lets him use his speed, and the blinkers return after a quiet jump-out.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Pacific Glamour | 3 | Chelsea Thompson | Nelson Smyth | 54.5kg | $3.70 |
| 2nd | 7 | Wind Dreamer | 6 | Sam Kennedy | John Keane | 54kg | $6.50 |
| 3rd | 1 | Machinist | 2 | Adam McCabe | Monica Croston and Gerrad Gilmour | 60kg | $8.00 |
| 4th | 3 | Tipping Rain | 5 | Liana Wood | John Rattle | 54kg | $3.20 |
| 5th | 10 | Hillbily Kynection | 11 | Nathan Punch | Jeffrey Kyne | 54kg | $71.00 |
| 6th | 4 | Magnea | 1 | Lachlan King | Ashleigh Smith | 57kg | $5.00 |
| 7th | 6 | Heartattack Jack | 10 | Melea Castle | Damien Walkley | 56kg | $19.00 |
| 8th | 9 | Banjette | 4 | Bailey Kinninmont | Dennis Julius | 52.5kg | $26.00 |
| 9th | 8 | Montrock | 8 | Olivia East | Chris Davis | 52.5kg | $61.00 |
| 10th | 5 | Shooting For Stars | 9 | Sarah Robbins | Brendon Newport | 56.5kg | $20.00 |
| Scr | 11 | Cavascot | 7 | John Heath | 54kg |
He won a similar restricted race at Manangatang a fortnight ago after rolling forward to sit handy, and he is second-up with one win from three in that slot. Andrew Bobbin has had eight winners from his last twenty runners. Barrier six lets him use his early speed in a moderate 1209m, where handy runners often hold an edge. Top weight and a hanging habit are the risks.
Ponte Arcobaleno is the clear danger. He has the best distance record in the field, two wins and five placings from ten around this trip, and both recent turf runs were up to a winning standard, including a last-start win at Manangatang under 60kg. Lachlan King rode that win and strikes at twenty percent lately. He settles midfield, so a moderate tempo asks for a finish, and 59.5kg is as high as he has been winning.
Belmasai has the cleanest on-pace map from barrier four and has already won at Yarra Valley. A fortnight ago he finished fourth at Manangatang, about two lengths off the winner, after being held up rounding the turn. Erin Maher has five winners from her last twenty. The knock is the rider, winless in her last twenty, and a good-ground record of only one win from twenty-one. He is a place horse in a race that should suit his position.
Balgowan is the only natural leader and all three of her wins have come on good ground, three from nineteen. Seven days ago she led at Wodonga and was only grabbed late in a slightly easier race. Sam Kennedy's claim leaves her on 52.5kg and he has already won on her.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 11 | Balgowan | 11 | Sam Kennedy | Chris Davis | 52.5kg | $5.50 |
| 2nd | 2 | Ponte Arcobaleno | 3 | Lachlan King | Ben Brisbourne | 59.5kg | $7.00 |
| 3rd | 10 | Smashing Ruby | 2 | Liana Wood | John Rattle | 51kg | $6.50 |
| 4th | 7 | Belmasai | 4 | Melea Castle | Erin Maher | 57.5kg | $8.00 |
| 5th | 1 | Pensatore | 1 | Olivia East | Tracey Cullen | 57.5kg | $16.00 |
| 6th | 4 | Rockcliff | 7 | Dylan Dunn | Ray Besanko | 58.5kg | $21.00 |
| 7th | 3 | The Mount | 6 | Joe Bowditch | Andrew Bobbin | 59.5kg | $3.40 |
| 8th | 5 | Think I'm Divine | 8 | Jake Noonan | Kasey Besanko | 58kg | $21.00 |
| 9th | 8 | Moose Jaw | 9 | Sally Wynne | Samantha Wynne | 55.5kg | $12.00 |
| 10th | 6 | Aussieaussieaussie | 12 | Damien Thornton | Raymond Mathews | 57.5kg | $12.00 |
| Scr | 9 | Second Guess | 13 | John Heath | 55.5kg | ||
| Scr | 12 | Snow On Her | 10 | Chris Davis | 54kg | ||
| Scr | 13 | Think Sassy | 5 | Melanie Bullard | 55kg |
Colour Circle is the form horse in this restricted 1514m. His Bairnsdale second at the class, under 60kg on good ground, was a genuine on-speed effort and he maps to lead a moderate tempo from barrier 5. A wide no-cover failure in a stronger Geelong race can be overlooked, and he has a heavy-track win plus placings if the ground eases.
Slate Ripper won a Kilmore race over 1457m eleven days ago, coming from midfield on good ground under 60kg. He has two wins and a third from five starts around this trip and has already finished third at Yarra Valley. The rise back to a restricted 56 is acceptable after a plain fifth three runs back when he sat outside the winner and did not quicken. Barrier 9 is manageable with the lead open.
Clarapatra gets in on the minimum after Liana Wood's claim and has been racing honestly at this level. She was a close fourth at Hamilton last start after being caught wide, and at Bairnsdale she had every chance in the same race Colour Circle finished second. Barrier 10 and a record of one win from 12 starts mean she still needs a clean trip from midfield. Each-way is the right play.
The Kings Gospel is first-up after 167 days and his fresh record is 6:0-0-1, so he needs the two Cranbourne jump-outs to have him ready. When fit he is a six-win horse who took a similar race at Hamilton under 67.5kg, and 59.5kg here is kinder if the track moves toward soft, where he has three wins from 16. The 1514m is shorter than the staying races he has been winning and he has never started at the trip. Small each-way.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 9 | Clarapatra | 10 | Liana Wood | Adrian McGregor | 54kg | $9.50 |
| 2nd | 1 | Colour Circle | 5 | Damien Thornton | Brian McGrath | 60kg | $3.10 |
| 3rd | 4 | Slate Ripper | 9 | Jackson Radley | Colin McGillivray | 60kg | $10.00 |
| 4th | 7 | Prestige Geoffrey | 8 | Mitchell Aitken | Matt Jenkins | 58.5kg | $5.50 |
| 5th | 3 | Prestige Ole | 1 | Jake Noonan | Julius Sandhu | 60kg | $3.50 |
| 6th | 5 | The Kings Gospel | 6 | Adam McCabe | Adrian McGregor | 59.5kg | $31.00 |
| 7th | 10 | Our Paramour | 13 | Joe Bowditch | Aaron Laing | 57kg | $12.00 |
| 8th | 2 | Hell's Itch | 7 | Lachlan King | Ben Brisbourne | 60kg | $14.00 |
| 9th | 8 | Somax | 14 | Fred W Kersley | J L Grob | 57.5kg | $101.00 |
| 10th | 6 | Okeah | 3 | Nadia Daniels | William Morrissey | 57kg | $26.00 |
| Scr | 11 | Sacred Ingot | 4 | Lee and Shannon Hope | 57.5kg | ||
| Scr | 12 | I'm Dynamite | 12 | Susie Wells | 57.5kg | ||
| Scr | 13 | Nicking Gracie | 2 | Tori Madigan | 54.5kg | ||
| Scr | 14 | Cuban Dawn | 11 | David and Coral Feek | 56.5kg |
Before the races, not after
Our top three picks and a value pick for every race, with assessed prices, speed maps and the analysis behind them. Free for 7 days.
Abandoned