Kembla Grange tips and results

Our price $7.50 · SP $6.50 · Lee Magorrian

Envious is the value debutant. There is no race form to punish, and the proxies point forward: Waller at this track, a 17 percent strike with Magorrian, and a Zoustar pedigree that fits 1200m on good ground. She has had two trials, both only moderate, and gate 11 means she may have to work or be posted wide. An each-way ticket covers the unknowns.

Our price $4.60 · SP $2.50 · Keagan Latham

Pyra is the second string of the first-starters and a logical place chance. His trials were honest rather than dazzling.

Our price $11.00 · SP $12.00 · Chad Lever

He has already run to within a length and a half of a provincial maiden winner here, and a recent local trial second says he is ready enough first-up. He maps as a leader, which matters when several rivals are debuting.

Our price $12.00 · SP $19.00 · Jess Taylor

He ran third at Bathurst eight days ago and has two honest fourths at the mile, including a defeat of under a length at Wyong on a day he was bumped early. He will settle back, so a moderate tempo is only a help if the leaders tire, and he is yet to place on good from two starts.

Our price $8.00 · SP $12.00 · Keagan Latham

Scrap maps as the each-way horse who can control a share of this moderate tempo.

Our price $15.00 · SP $16.00 · Deanne Panya

Husslaa is the value runner outside the main chances. Barrier 1 second-up gives him a cheaper run than the wide backmarkers.

Our price $4.20 · SP $5.00 · Mitchell Bell

Her last two Kembla Grange runs at this level were the best recent efforts in the field, finishing hard from the back, and she already has a win and several placings at the track on good ground. The query is the rise to 1500m, which she has never tried, and a moderate pace that may not set the race up for a closer.

Our price $9.00 · SP $8.50 · Olivia Chambers

Yes Siree is the overlay. He won a mile two starts into this class last time, finding late off a handy trail, and he meets a similar race 5kg lighter once the claim is counted. A midfield sit from barrier 6 suits the moderate pace.

Our price $5.00 · SP $6.00 · Jean Van Overmeire

In the same Kembla race two weeks ago he finished second, ahead of La Morra, after interference late, and the run was up to winning standard. The Randwick failure was a wide trip in a stronger race.

Our price $5.50 · SP $7.50 · Keagan Latham

Indecisive brings the most relevant Kembla 1000m form. He was a close third here in a Bm64 carrying 61kg, and earlier in the prep he ran a strong third at the same track after a wide trip. He is first-up with a 4:1-0-1 fresh record and trialled a close third over 800m. Barrier 3 helps, but 61kg and a backmarker pattern in a moderate tempo mean he is an each-way chance rather than the one to beat.

Our price $8.00 · SP $12.00 · Shaun Guymer

The Newcastle maiden win before that came from a long way off the pace. At 55kg from barrier 1 she can find a trail, though she is still the backmarker in a moderate 1000m.

Our price $6.00 · SP $12.00 · Mollie Fitzgerald

In-form mare who resumed 15 days ago with a last-to-first win at Canberra and has three victories from her last six. She settles back and lets down hard, which is exactly the profile that should prosper with the pace expected to be furious up front, and she carries a winnable weight. The second-up record is the obvious niggle, but her good-ground form is solid and the long Kembla straight gives her every chance to wind up late.

Our price $9.00 · SP $9.00 · Amy McLucas

A Kembla specialist with two wins from four here who has been set for this and warmed up with a smart trial win over the track last week. She jumps from gate two and should be able to sit just off a frantic early tempo rather than contest it. There is a query at 59kg first-up after six months, but her fresh record and her record at this circuit are sound enough for her to be in the finish.

Our price $13.00 · SP $19.00 · Poppie Gorton

An honest get-back sprinter who has produced two closing thirds at this level this preparation, the latest beaten a whisker after settling a clear last. He drops out of stronger races, has a solid record here and over this trip, and a hot speed battle in front of him is exactly the scenario he needs.