Randwick tips and results

Our price $7.00 · SP $6.00 · Mikayla Weir

Force March is the most consistent horse in the race with six placings from seven starts and has run to a winning standard three times this preparation. He stepped up to metropolitan grade at Rosehill last start and ran a strong second. The wide barrier and a slowly run race are his hurdles, as he will have to come from midfield or worse.

Our price $12.00 · SP $21.00 · Rachel King

Spread The Love is the one horse in this field who wants to lead, and with no other on-pace runner showing a leading record he should get a soft time in front. At 52kg with Rachel King, he can set a tempo that makes life hard for the backmarkers behind him.

Our price $9.00 · SP $14.00 · Saffie Osborne

A very fast tempo and a low draw suit a horse who runs on hard from the back, and the Cavanough stable is flying.

Our price $8.00 · SP $7.50 · Nash Rawiller

He resumes with two trials, a sound first-up record and Nash Rawiller aboard. The problem is the setup: 61kg, a likely lead role in a race expected to be run hard, and a good surface that has not suited him as well as rain-affected ground.

Our price $9.00 · SP $26.00 · Saffie Osborne

Arapawa is the overlay in the race. The stable is flying, he carries 56kg and the fast tempo suits a horse who can settle midfield and build into the race.

Our price $5.00 · SP $7.00 · Jett Newman

Alabama State is the most likely winner and justifies favouritism. He drops from BM88/BM78 company to a Bench 68 after a strong last-start win at Rosehill where he settled handy and proved too tough. The 3kg claim helps his weight, and his form on good ground is solid. The main query is his lack of wins at Randwick and 1500m, plus a backmarker's map in a moderate tempo, but his class edge is significant.

Our price $7.50 · SP $6.50 · Tim Clark

Dusty Bay is an improving stayer who won well over 1600m last start. He maps ideally from barrier 2, sitting on pace in a moderate tempo. The big query is the weight: he jumps from 54kg to 63kg, a significant rise, and he has not won at Randwick or at 1500m. He is a top-three chance on map and form, but the weight makes him vulnerable.

Our price $8.00 · SP $17.00 · Shannen Llewellyn

Spaceballs is the value play. She has a good overall place rate and is proven on good ground. The wide draw is a concern, but she can settle midfield and her light weight with the 3kg claim is a plus.

Our price $8.00 · SP $5.50 · Tommy Berry

Think Itz You is the value play. He is the likely leader in a race without a natural front-runner and a moderate tempo is expected, so he gets his own way in front with Tommy Berry. His Newcastle win was a strong effort and he has stayed 2000m at Group level.

Our price $4.00 · SP $5.00 · Tommy Berry

Ertijaaj shares favouritism and deserves it on form. Her flop at BM88 last time came when she over-raced and was caught wide, which is easily forgiven. Back to BM78, from barrier 2 with Tommy Berry riding in top form, she should find a trail behind Metallic Cat and be the one to beat.

Our price $11.00 · SP $26.00 · Blaike McDougall

She has placed in all three resumes, including a win, and her trial and jump-out form says she is ready. She races on the pace, which suits the expected even tempo, and her country wins last preparation were run to a standard that would be competitive here.

Our price $4.50 · SP $4.40 · Tommy Berry

He is three from three at 1300m, won the Missile Stakes here in August with a run that stands up against anything in this field, and held his ground in The Everest from an on-pace spot while Jimmysstar was held up behind him. With a lone leader and a moderate tempo likely, his ability to race midfield and sprint is the right profile, and he drops in class with 1kg less than the top weights. Berry is in strong form.

Our price $4.50 · SP $3.80 · Ethan Brown

He won the Group 1 Manikato from last two starts ago and was closest on the line in The Everest after being blocked for a run. He has won three of five at 1300m. He is not the top pick because the map is against him: from barrier 16 he will settle near last in a race with one leader and only moderate speed, and Ninja beat him home from a better position a fortnight ago.

Our price $2.40 · SP $1.50 · Luke Nolen

She has won three Group 1 races this year, including two at Randwick, and her Randwick Guineas and Doncaster wins remain the strongest performances anyone in this field has produced. A fast tempo plays into her sit-and-sprint style.

Our price $14.00 · SP $26.00 · Tommy Berry

Apocalyptic beat two of the top three selections to win the Silver Eagle a fortnight ago, and she did it in a strongly-run race that mirrors how this looks mapped. She is a genuine Randwick specialist with four wins here, gets the mare's allowance and has an in-form Tommy Berry aboard.

Our price $4.00 · SP $4.60 · Andrew Adkins

Anthracite is the form horse and the map horse. With no other confirmed leader and a slow tempo predicted, he gets to dictate under 53.5kg.

Our price $7.50 · SP $11.00 · Alysha Collett

Where'stheprofit is a genuine 1100m specialist with four wins from four at the trip and six from seven on good tracks. His last-start victory at Dubbo was dominant, coming from off the pace to win by nearly four lengths. The step up to metropolitan company is the query, but his form is strong enough to suggest he can handle it.