Flemington tips and results

Our price $7.00 · SP $4.60 · John Allen

High Falls has done everything right in two starts and his style suits the race shape. He should land near the speed from barrier 4 in a moderate tempo, and his debut win at Hamilton was a genuinely strong performance. The reservation is that his dominant Warrnambool win was a slow-run country race against modest opposition, so the step to Group 3 at a mile is a big leap on limited evidence.

Our price $7.00 · SP $8.00 · Craig Williams

Glenorchy is the one runner with genuine black-type credentials, having finished second in a Listed race at Eagle Farm and contested a Group 1 over this trip. He returned with a sound second at Kembla Grange in a race run to suit nobody from behind, and should improve second up with that under his belt.

Our price $5.50 · SP $6.00 · Blake Shinn

A consistent filly who has been right there in her last two black-type runs, beaten narrowly each time. She should be able to find a handy position despite the wide gate, and the moderate tempo will suit her. The main risk is the draw.

Our price $5.00 · SP $3.80 · James McDonald

A progressive filly who ran second in the Group 3 Reginald Allen Quality over this 1400m trip. She carried 58.5kg that day and benefits from a drop to 56kg here. James McDonald adds quality in the saddle and she should run a bold race.

Our price $10.00 · SP $20.00 · Patrick Moloney

She has genuine early speed and is expected to be on the pace in a moderate-tempo race.

Our price $7.00 · SP $5.00 · James McDonald

The best of the Ethereal Stakes form. Your Colour ran on strongly from the tail to finish second over 2000m at Caulfield two weeks ago and she is the only leading chance already proven at this distance. The wide draw and a moderate tempo are real concerns, as she will have to come from a long way back, but the Flemington straight gives her every chance to do so. James McDonald replacing Blake Shinn is a plus. A solid place chance.

Our price $8.00 · SP $8.50 · Damian Lane

Tharwa was held up at the 500m and had to peel to the middle of the track in the Ethereal Stakes, yet still ran on well for fourth over this distance. Still a maiden and drawn wide, but Damian Lane rides and the long straight will help. Each-way value.

Our price $4.50 · SP $5.50 · James McDonald

His Missile Stakes second at Randwick was run to a winning standard, and his Manikato sixth behind the best sprinters in the land reads well against Group 3 opposition. He has three wins from eight at 1200m, handles good ground and gets James McDonald, who has won three of four on him.

Our price $6.00 · SP $5.50 · Craig Williams

Her six-length Flemington win was visually impressive and run to a high standard, and she has since won a jump-out for Craig Williams.

Our price $4.50 · SP $4.20 · Mark Zahra

Warnie brings the strongest top-level form into this. He chased home the Toorak winner over the mile, was close in the Rupert Clarke, then won softly at Group 3 level, and now drops out of Group 1 company. He gets back but Flemington's long straight plays to that, he has won twice here, and Zahra knows him well. The main query is a moderate tempo leaving him too much ground to make up.

Our price $5.50 · SP $7.00 · Craig Williams

The most reliable horse in the field, Persian Spirit arrives off a deserved Caulfield 1400m win and his Sir Rupert Clarke effort can be forgiven after he was badly checked. His 1400m and Flemington records are strong, he lands an ideal barrier, and Craig Williams has won on him both times.

Our price $4.00 · SP $6.00 · Ben Melham

Satono Glow is the form horse on dry ground. Her Roman Consul win over Steel Will, Paradoxium and The Machine Gun was the best 1200m run of any runner here, and she has won both starts down the Flemington straight including over this exact trip. She ran to a winning standard in each of her last two starts, gets 2kg from the colts, and the predicted hot tempo sets the race up for her to finish over the top.

Our price $12.00 · SP $13.00 · Blake Shinn

Under Focus is consistently underrated. A very fast tempo plays to his strength of finishing off hard from midfield.

Our price $5.50 · SP $10.00 · Billy Egan

True Rebel is the form horse. His Moonee Valley Vase win here last week was the best performance in this field, run at a genuinely strong level, and the Vase is the traditional Derby guide. He has settled midfield and quickened in both recent wins, which suits a moderate tempo and the long Flemington straight.

Our price $5.50 · SP $6.00 · Jamie Mott

Cormier is the most proven Group 1 performer in the race, with placings in the J.J. Atkins and Spring Champion Stakes, and his last-start third was a tough effort after leading in a strongly run race. The inside draw and moderate tempo give him the perfect spot just behind the speed, and the extra distance looks ideal for his dour style.

Our price $10.00 · SP $11.00 · John Allen

Skua is the value runner. The moderate tempo and his ability to sit second or third behind Quick Finish give him the softer run he needs, and he has already shown he sees out a staying trip.

Our price $6.50 · SP $10.00 · Jason Collett

She is four from five at the mile and places almost every start. The predicted fast tempo and her settle-back style are a natural fit for the Flemington straight.

Our price $6.00 · SP $5.50 · Blake Shinn

Surfin' Bird is unbeaten at the mile and won the Crystal Mile here last week, so her record demands respect. The concern is the shape of the race.

Our price $11.00 · SP $18.00 · Damian Lane

Sass Appeal is the forgotten horse in a deep field. She is four from five at Flemington and her Kewney Stakes win over this course and distance in the autumn was the strongest mile performance any runner here has produced. Her Tontonan fourth showed she can sit handy in a fast race and still fight on.

Our price $8.50 · SP $12.00 · Craig Williams

She draws to slot in just behind a hot speed and Craig Williams, who rides her well, should have her within striking distance on the turn. Genuine and consistent, though she may lack the knockout punch of a couple of these.

Our price $6.50 · SP $6.00 · Ben Melham

The model of consistency at this level, placing in Group 3 company at her last three starts over 1100-1200m and twice a winner at Flemington. She jumps from gate three and Ben Melham, who rides her well, should have her prominent without doing it tough.

Our price $9.00 · SP $16.00 · Blake Shinn

Resumed with a strong second in the Northwood Plume after being forced four deep without a mate, and she strips fitter second up, a stage at which she has already won. From gate four she can lob into a nice trail behind the expected speed battle and be produced late. The dry track is the query.