Punt like a Pro, without the know!
Western Australia · Saturday 12 September 2026
Our top pick won 1 of 6 races at Carnarvon. Every pick, our analysis and the full results are below.
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Fries With That ticks the key Carnarvon boxes: he won his latest start over 1600m here in BM56+ grade and races on-pace, matching the track's strong leader/on-pace positional bias. He was 3rd over this 1750m trip at this track two runs back and is on an improving trend. The veteran has a modest overall win rate and only a fair draw, but he maps ideally in a moderate tempo.
Barrier 1 helps him save ground, and his disappointing last run can be forgiven (crowded and wide throughout). However he settles off the pace, and Carnarvon's positional data shows backmarkers yet to win recent staying races, plus this is his first attempt at 1750m.
Another Nephew drops sharply in class from Open company and owns a win over the 1750m journey. He has early speed and maps to settle around 3rd, which suits Carnarvon's on-pace lean.
With a 3kg claim she carries only 50.5kg, a real edge in a compressed weight field.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 1 | Another Nephew | 5 | Jason Li | Timothy Pike | 60kg | $3.60 |
| 2nd | 4 | Fries With That | 6 | Natasha Faithfull | R J Malpass | 56.5kg | $3.30 |
| 3rd | 3 | Awesome Lily | 3 | Giaan O'Donnell | D E Black | 53.5kg | $11.00 |
| 4th | 2 | Big Shots | 1 | Tiana Murray | D R Pateman | 59kg | $6.00 |
| 5th | 5 | Lordgivemestrength | 8 | Madi Derrick | P J Daly | 55kg | $15.00 |
| 6th | 6 | Mr Hollywood | 4 | A Hearn | Aaron Pateman | 55kg | $5.00 |
| 7th | 8 | Space Ace | 7 | Sharni Webster | R J Malpass | 53kg | $10.00 |
| 8th | 7 | Run Teddy Run | 2 | J See | Jacquelyn Scott | 55kg | $31.00 |
Clear top pick. Drops from Open company back to a BM68+ level he dominated at Broome, where he posted three wins and two seconds in five starts. On-pace runner who maps to settle second on a track where leaders/on-pacers win around 20% and the sprint-race on-pace bias is strongest early in the card.
The map horse.
Maps to settle midfield (~4), which is workable in a slow-tempo 1200m. Jockey Jefferson Tsang is riding in career-best form (20% from his last 20, 20% on this horse, 13% at Carnarvon). Concerns: rising in class from BM56+, no wins from four Carnarvon 1200m outs, and a 6-day backup.
Overlay. Red Rebel is the Carnarvon specialist in the field — 8:2-1-2 overall and one win from two at this track and distance — and he maps to settle around third, the exact band that delivers 20% of winners here. Recent form reads 1-2-3, all at 1400m and beyond, and Kate Pateman rides him at a 33% strike rate while winning 11% at Carnarvon.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2 | Cruise To Victory | 6 | Tiana Murray | D R Pateman | 62kg | $2.60 |
| 2nd | 5 | Fire The Guard | 1 | Giaan O'Donnell | D E Black | 53.5kg | $6.00 |
| 3rd | 3 | Prince Ragnar | 4 | Ebony Johnson | K Nightingale | 59kg | $9.50 |
| 4th | 1 | Galaxy Affair | 2 | Tara Atherden | Timothy Pike | 62.5kg | $11.00 |
| 5th | 4 | Red Rebel | 5 | Kate Pateman | Aaron Pateman | 57kg | $3.20 |
| 6th | 6 | Weapons Hot | 3 | Jefferson Tsang | Cliff Howe | 55kg | $6.50 |
The clear query is the 60kg top weight after a declining recent profile, but the 5.5kg spread is not extreme and her positional edge is decisive.
The obvious knock is a poor winning strike rate, but in a weak, high-variance Class 1 her reliability and map make her the clear second pick.
Amelia's Frost is the raw improver who looks positioned to dictate. Lacks proof but the map gives her a live chance.
The wide gate is again a risk, but if she can slot in behind the speed, her closing speed is a genuine weapon in a weak Class 1 where many rivals lack a strong finish.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Addictive Dream | 11 | T Turner | R J Malpass | 58.5kg | $8.00 |
| 2nd | 1 | Magic Carats | 1 | Natasha Faithfull | R J Malpass | 60kg | $2.70 |
| 3rd | 2 | Costa Star | 3 | Giaan O'Donnell | R R Evans | 56kg | $3.80 |
| 4th | 9 | Amelia's Frost | 7 | Jason Li | Zach Tyler | 54.5kg | $26.00 |
| 5th | 6 | Demetrious | 6 | Kate Pateman | Leigh Murray | 57.5kg | $7.50 |
| 6th | 8 | Dashing Diva | 9 | Jefferson Tsang | Cliff Howe | 55.5kg | $11.00 |
| 7th | 10 | Hot Nova | 10 | Casey Hunter | R R Evans | 56.5kg | $21.00 |
| 8th | 5 | Lady Mayflower | 4 | Madi Derrick | Leigh Murray | 58.5kg | $31.00 |
| 9th | 7 | Rhaenya | 2 | A Hearn | D R Couper | 57.5kg | $61.00 |
| 10th | 4 | Coupe Deburj | 8 | Amy Jo Hayes | Leigh Murray | 58.5kg | $8.50 |
| 11th | 11 | Unruly Dame | 5 | J See | Jacquelyn Scott | 55.5kg | $151.00 |
Kimberley Currency profiles as the most likely winner. He owns a superb Carnarvon 1000m record (4:2-1-1) and won twice at this venue in July, including over this trip. Barrier 4 suits an on-pace runner perfectly given the strong leader/early-speed bias in Carnarvon dirt sprints, and he maps to settle in the prime 1-4 range. Jefferson Tsang's 33% strike with this horse and 13% at the track add confidence. The class drop from BM64+ to BM56+ is a plus.
He maps on-pace in a race with a clear early-speed advantage at Carnarvon. The main query is the 60kg top weight over a sharp 1000m against genuine speed, plus a slightly wide draw.
The class rise from BM48 to BM56 and an unproven record at this venue temper confidence, but the map and barrier mean he is a legitimate place/leading threat.
She owns the best place rate in the field (40%) and maps on-pace to settle near the lead, which is the winning profile in Carnarvon dirt sprints. She carries a light 53.5kg and drops in class.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | Mars Mission | 3 | Ebony Johnson | Aaron Pateman | 53.5kg | $5.50 |
| 2nd | 4 | Coondle | 1 | Kate Pateman | Leigh Murray | 57kg | $3.90 |
| 3rd | 7 | Lady Coco | 7 | Sharni Webster | R J Malpass | 53.5kg | $19.00 |
| 4th | 8 | Smart Return | 10 | Casey Hunter | R R Evans | 55.5kg | $9.00 |
| 5th | 2 | Kimberley Currency | 4 | Jefferson Tsang | Cliff Howe | 57.5kg | $2.30 |
| 6th | 6 | Cheeky Charlotte | 9 | J See | Jacquelyn Scott | 56.5kg | $101.00 |
| 7th | 10 | War Tactics | 5 | Giaan O'Donnell | D E Black | 52kg | $51.00 |
| 8th | 9 | City Of Sin | 2 | Amy Jo Hayes | Ms C Godden | 55kg | $31.00 |
| 9th | 5 | Daiyamondo | 6 | Tiana Murray | R R Evans | 54kg | $71.00 |
| 10th | 1 | Shooting Kontiki | 8 | Natasha Faithfull | R J Malpass | 60kg | $7.50 |
In career-best form with three straight wins, including two at 2200m in Open company at Broome. Drawn 5 and gets 58.5kg, 4kg under the top weight. The moderate tempo expected from two on-pace runners should suit his closing style over a staying trip where Carnarvon data shows no on-pace edge.
Boasts the field's best win strike rate (23%) and three wins from his last five, all at 2000-2230m. Proven with 61-63kg. The queries are the 62.5kg top weight and a backmarker's run style that Carnarvon historically punishes.
Early-speed rank two means he should settle around fifth with 55kg, avoiding the trouble backmarkers face here. Was second at Broome over 2070m carrying 62.5kg.
Consistent Carnarvon campaigner who broke through last start, winning over 1900m at Junction. Six placings from eight starts at this track underline his reliability, and he maps to settle handy in about third with 55kg. Jockey Casey Hunter is riding in good form (four wins from his last 20).
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Pharoah Show | 11 | Kate Pateman | D R Pateman | 56.5kg | $7.50 |
| 2nd | 8 | Hard Questions | 10 | Madi Derrick | A P Scally | 55kg | $6.50 |
| 3rd | 2 | Dynamic One | 3 | A Hearn | Timothy Pike | 60kg | $7.00 |
| 4th | 11 | Star Testymony | 9 | Jason Li | Leigh Murray | 55kg | $5.00 |
| 5th | 6 | Candlelight Sherif | 7 | Casey Hunter | R R Evans | 55kg | $14.00 |
| 6th | 9 | Lutz | 2 | Amy Jo Hayes | D R Pateman | 55kg | $21.00 |
| 7th | 10 | Odin Omen | 1 | Jefferson Tsang | Cliff Howe | 55kg | $41.00 |
| 8th | 12 | Tiff's Lad | 4 | Sharni Webster | Aaron Pateman | 55kg | $26.00 |
| 9th | 1 | Zadar Rock | 6 | T Turner | Dean Cocivera | 62.5kg | $6.00 |
| 10th | 7 | Fellafromdownunder | 8 | Bailey Webster | Leigh Murray | 55kg | $101.00 |
| 11th | 5 | Beautiful Baroque | 12 | Giaan O'Donnell | Leigh Murray | 55kg | $101.00 |
| 12th | 3 | Kings Sicario | 5 | Natasha Faithfull | D R Pateman | 58.5kg | $3.70 |
In career-best form with three consecutive wins, including a come-from-behind victory over this exact track and trip on 30 August. Barrier 3, handles the Good going, and high weight suitability. The clear form pick despite settling midfield.
However, his 1400m record reads 0-0-0 and the pace map places him mid-to-back, against a track that favours on-pace runners.
A genuine Carnarvon 1400m specialist with an outstanding 21:3-5-3 record at this exact track and trip. Finished a strong second here on 30 August, making ground from 13th, and is consistent overall (40:4-10-4).
The best value in the race. Lightweight (53kg) and inside barrier (2) help. Her clear query is the step to 1400m for the first time, and she is more a place-getter than a winner.
| Finish | No. | Horse | Barrier | Jockey | Trainer | Weight | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | Western Impact | 10 | Natasha Faithfull | R J Malpass | 57.5kg | $7.00 |
| 2nd | 1 | Solar System | 6 | Tiana Murray | D R Pateman | 56.5kg | $4.40 |
| 3rd | 3 | Ironclad Boy | 9 | Giaan O'Donnell | D E Black | 55.5kg | $5.50 |
| 4th | 7 | Soaring Solo | 4 | Jefferson Tsang | Cliff Howe | 55kg | $9.00 |
| 5th | 6 | Tango Rhythm | 3 | Madi Derrick | P J Daly | 57kg | $4.20 |
| 6th | 4 | Leading Taddy | 8 | T Turner | Dean Cocivera | 57.5kg | $6.00 |
| 7th | 8 | Sunshine Tafe | 5 | Tara Atherden | P J Daly | 53.5kg | $26.00 |
| 8th | 2 | Keytrade | 1 | Jason Li | K Nightingale | 57kg | $15.00 |
| 9th | 9 | Novatorio | 7 | A Hearn | D R Couper | 55kg | $101.00 |
| 10th | 10 | She Is All Magic | 2 | Bailey Webster | Jacquelyn Scott | 53kg | $26.00 |
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