Flemington tips and results

Our price $7.50 · SP $9.00 · J Mott

Moby Dick is the value runner.

Our price $5.00 · SP $5.50 · Craig Williams

Back on Good 4, where his record is 3:1-2-0, and drawn inside with Craig Williams, he maps to get the Very Fast tempo a deep closer needs. The step to 1400m is unproven, but his finishing pattern suggests it will suit.

Our price $5.00 · SP $3.60 · Thomas Stockdale

His good-track record of 2 wins from 3 starts suits today. The wide draw (13) at a track where gates 13+ have not produced a winner in 18 recent runners, plus the untested 1400m, keeps him behind Big Wigs on form.

Our price $8.00 · SP $13.00 · J R Collett

Diameter is the most exposed black-type performer in the field, with a Listed win over 1600m and a Group 1 placing behind him. The predicted Very Fast tempo suits his midfield pattern.

Our price $4.00 · SP $4.60 · B Melham

Streisand is the class runner of this Group 3, a Blue Diamond winner at Caulfield on Good 4 and a Group 2 winner over today's 1100m trip. Her 1400m Sydney flop came on Soft 7 when keen and can be forgiven. First-up last preparation she was beaten a nose in Listed grade at Flemington. The 59.5kg is the main query but a compressed weight scale limits the give. Streisand is the most likely winner.

Our price $7.00 · SP $9.00 · L Currie

Her Heavy 8 defeat behind Satono Glow is discounted with today's Good 4 surface. A fast tempo from Lucky Brook and I Am Aria lets her sit just off the speed, which is the profile that wins here.

Our price $7.00 · SP $7.50 · Damian Lane

He is race fit third up while several rivals are fresh. The risk is a speed duel with Big Sky, and his July Flemington failure came on soft ground.

Our price $3.40 · SP $5.50 · Craig Williams

With two leaders and a likely slow tempo, his handy map from barrier 5 aligns with Flemington's staying-race lean to runners settling 1-6. The class rise is the main risk, but the trajectory and jockey record make him the most likely winner.

Our price $4.50 · SP $3.50 · B Shinn

Litzdeel brings the best Group-level form to this race and her Flemington record is excellent. She maps to sit outside the leader in a slow tempo, which suits, and she is clearly fitter third-up after a strong Caulfield second. The 58.5kg and a tendency to run placings rather than win keep her just behind Nearco Frod, but she is the main danger and a reliable place proposition.

Our price $22.00 · SP $41.00 · M J Dee

Suffolk Star is a rough each-way angle rather than a win play. His first-up profile is strong for placings, he handled Listed grade at Flemington on Good ground in May, and his Good-track record is solid. Win prospects remain slim given the backmarker map and slow tempo.

Our price $2.60 · SP $3.20 · Logan Bates

Sass Appeal is unbeaten from four Flemington starts per her track record, including a Listed win over this course and distance and a Group 2 mile win, both on Good ground. Her only defeat this prep was on Soft 6, a surface she has not handled.

Our price $7.50 · SP $5.50 · Jamie Melham

She has won twice over this course and distance and gets in with 54kg. The barrier 13 draw is the main concern; she will need to work early to find a forward spot, and her Flemington black-type record shows minor placings rather than wins.

Our price $8.50 · SP $13.00 · W Egan

Lim's Saltoro is the value runner. His first-up Group 3 third on Soft 7 was encouraging and he has won two of three second-up starts. Blinkers go on for the first time with an in-form Flemington rider.

Our price $2.30 · SP $1.60 · H Coffey

Six wins from eight starts, a Group 3 win last start after being held up, and a second-up record of two from two make him the most likely winner. He maps handy in a fast tempo, which suits on-pace runners at black-type level here.

Our price $14.00 · SP $17.00 · M Zahra

The defending winner of this race with a strong course and distance record. Forgive the last start on a soft track when caught wide. The concern is the fast tempo with Desert Lightning likely to press him, and his good-track win rate is modest.

Our price $10.00 · SP $15.00 · M J Dee

A good-track specialist who was beaten on soft ground first up after being held up. He returns to a Good 4 surface where he has six wins from ten starts, and he is two from two second up.

Our price $7.00 · SP $8.00 · B Shinn

His second up record is remarkable and the Memsie run showed he retains ability, beating several of these home. Age and weight against lighter mares are the real negatives, but the on-pace map from barrier 2 suits the track profile.

Our price $5.50 · SP $5.00 · Craig Williams

Sir Delius is the class horse of the field with Group 1 wins in the Turnbull and at Randwick over 2000m. He wins first up and his trials have been sharp. The doubts are the mile being short of his best and a slow beginner needing luck from barrier 7. He should run a strong race and improve for this toward the spring staying targets.

Our price $9.00 · SP $13.00 · Damian Lane

The Doncaster third proves she is a Group 1 miler and the Memsie run first up was sound.

Our price $2.80 · SP $2.10 · Jordan Childs

She maps to sit handy behind Sea What I See on a moderate tempo, which is the winning profile at Flemington in Group 2 races.

Our price $7.00 · SP $7.50 · Ben Allen

Salty Pearl brings the strongest class credentials with a Group 1 third at Rosehill and a Group 2 win at Moonee Valley, and she has placed at 11 of 15 starts. Her Group 2 second at Caulfield over 1400m and Sandown Group 2 third at the trip on a good track confirm distance suitability. The concerns are top weight, a wide draw for a horse that settles back, and a win rate that says she is more likely to place than win.

Our price $10.00 · SP $15.00 · B Shinn

Sea What I See is the standout overlay. She is the only genuine leader, draws barrier 3, and Flemington data favours front runners in Group company. A good track record of 13 starts for 6 wins, 3 seconds and 1 third and 55kg on her back give her every chance to hold on if allowed a soft lead.

Our price $4.00 · SP $2.60 · Craig Williams

The 1700m and forecast fast tempo suit his midfield finishing pattern. Barrier 16 is the main risk, but the class edge is real.

Our price $6.50 · SP $4.40 · Jamie Melham

Justadeel maps perfectly from barrier 4 to sit just off a fast tempo, which is the winning profile at Flemington. He has been consistent in Open and Listed grade, is proven on Good ground with a Flemington win, and carries only 54.5kg. The query is winning form, with no victory in nearly a year and 1700m a slight step beyond his best.

Our price $15.00 · SP $21.00 · Jett Stanley

Today he gets Good ground, barrier 2, 54kg, a rise to a suitable 1700m, and the rider who won a Group 3 on him.