Kembla Grange tips and results

Our price $6.00 · SP $13.00 · G Buckley

He maps to race handy from barrier 7 and the on-pace edge at the Kembla mile is significant.

Our price $4.00 · SP $8.00 · Dale Cole

Cold Mist has the two things that matter most in Kembla Grange Maidens on Soft: an on-pace map from an inside draw and a big weight pull at 52kg. The obvious concern is 13 starts without a win, but the race shape and handicap give him every chance to break through today.

Our price $4.50 · SP $3.90 · Ms L Day

Our price $6.50 · SP $10.00 · C Lever

Winkers and a switch back to the Norton bit target his keenness. Each-way value.

Our price $5.00 · SP $4.40 · Ms R Freeman

Concerns are the unproven 1400m/soft combination and a jockey in poor form.

Our price $6.50 · SP $9.50 · C Reith

A reliable each-way runner whose profile fits the Kembla Soft-track lean. She settles just behind the speed, has placed at this track and distance on Soft 5, and drops from a competitive Canterbury BM72 where she was beaten under two lengths. The Reith/Widdup pairing is strong and blinkers return. Lack of winning instinct caps confidence, but she should be in the finish again.

Our price $3.40 · SP $3.60 · Ms W Costin

Drumfire is the class horse of the race on pure form. His 2nd to a smart type in Open company on a Soft 7 and a Muswellbrook Open win first-up both rate well above BM64 provincial level, and a recent Rosehill trial win on Soft 5 confirms fitness. Gets in with 58kg and maps to sit third behind moderate pace, ideal for the Kembla on-pace lean.

Our price $7.00 · SP $10.00 · G Buckley

The problem is race shape: he gets back and Kembla is unkind to backmarkers unless the pace falls apart. With only two genuine leaders and moderate tempo, he needs luck, but if Buckley can find a midfield spot from barrier 5 the turn of foot is strong enough.

Our price $8.00 · SP $18.00 · C Lever

He returns to Kembla off a genuine Open-class win on a Heavy 10, has placed in this very race on Soft 5 earlier in the year, and gets his most successful rider back. The 61.5kg is the obvious knock, but his two most recent Kembla failures had legitimate excuses and he maps into a handy position from a favoured barrier.

Our price $5.00 · SP $5.50 · L Magorrian

Zynaro is the horse whose form, map and connections align best with the Kembla soft-track profile. He has placed twice in three starts including a competitive third at Wyong second-up, wins a Soft 5 trial, draws ideally in barrier 6 and maps to sit third behind a cheap leader with Magorrian aboard for Waller (21% combo).

Our price $10.00 · SP $15.00 · Claire Ramsbotham

Canny Queen is the standout overlay. She won this grade at Kembla last start with 60kg settling handy, has a prior BM64 win over 1600m on Soft 7, and ran a close 5th in a Group 3 over this exact course and distance on Soft 5. The map is perfect: on-pace from barrier 4 in a race where the front three at the 400m win over 20% of soft-track miles here.