Rosehill tips and results

Our price $6.50 · SP $3.10 · Zac Lloyd

The trade-off is that she must come from last in a 20-horse field at a track that historically punishes backmarkers, while stepping sharply up in class.

Our price $5.00 · SP $3.50 · Ashley Morgan

His midfield racing pattern is the right one for a race with three genuine leaders. The unknown is a Good surface, as every start has been on soft, and Saturday metro grade is a step up, so he is a strong place proposition rather than the win selection.

Our price $14.00 · SP $41.00 · Tommy Berry

Zaragoza is the overlay. He won a BM68 at Kembla Grange over 1200m on Good 4 with 60kg last start and ran third in this exact grade at Rosehill over 1200m on Good ground earlier this year when racing wide. With three genuine leaders projected to set a very fast tempo, his deep closing pattern gets the race shape it needs.

Our price $9.00 · SP $4.60 · Zac Lloyd

Golden Century is the reliable placegetter in the field over 2400m, with 4 placings from 6 tries at the trip and a good-track record of 7:1-3-1. The blinkers sharpened him last start when he was closing strongly before being checked. He should sit just off Appeared in a slow tempo, which suits his pattern. He rarely wins so the place is the sensible play, but the map and rider make him a legitimate third pick.

Our price $7.00 · SP $7.00 · Tyler Schiller

The 7yo mare has a 27% win strike rate and gets in with 52kg from barrier 1 at a distance she has been placed at three times in Ireland. Her last run at 2400m was much better than it reads after being checked at the 500m, and she is improving third-up for Waller. The slow tempo and backmarker pattern limit her win chance, but she only needs a little luck to be placed at overs.

Our price $7.00 · SP $9.50 · Tommy Berry

Savisanta is the class overlay in the race. The first-up failure at 1400m on a Soft 7 from a wide gate is easily forgiven, and today he steps back to a suitable trip on Good ground with 54kg and an inside draw to settle handy. The one-win record caps confidence, so each-way is the play.

Our price $14.00 · SP $14.00 · Anna Roper

Les Vampires is the value runner. He races on the speed, which is the winning pattern at Rosehill over 1800m, and drops back in class.

Our price $5.50 · SP $5.00 · N Rawiller

Her issue is conversion: eight placings and only two wins from ten starts, and she laid in when it mattered last time.

Our price $7.00 · SP $8.00 · Zac Lloyd

She drops 2kg and the predicted fast pace from two genuine leaders is ideal for her sit-and-swoop style.

Our price $9.50 · SP $11.00 · Ben Thompson

Itazura is the overlay in the race.

Our price $3.80 · SP $4.00 · K Mc Evoy

He maps to settle in the first four from barrier 3, the winning profile at Rosehill on Good ground, and the extra 100m suits. Fitness and weight relief over the class horse Stormy Marco give him the edge.

Our price $5.50 · SP $6.00 · Siena Grima

Only two starts but the form is high quality: a Group 3 second at Randwick as a juvenile and a dominant all-the-way maiden win last start on Good 4. He maps to lead or share the lead in a moderately run race, which is the winning run style at Rosehill.

Our price $10.00 · SP $11.00 · Tommy Berry

From barrier 4 with a midfield map, he can be in the first six on the turn, the winning zone at this track.

Our price $4.20 · SP $7.50 · Tommy Berry

Apocalyptic profiles as the most likely winner on pure form. A Group 1 winner still improving at her ninth start, she gets a fast tempo to close into from two genuine leaders.

Our price $6.00 · SP $3.30 · Tim Clark

Weeping Woman brings the hottest form line in the race with four consecutive wins, and her Group 3 time at Randwick in February compares favourably to the Group 2 run that day. Fresh with two trial wins and only 55kg, she maps to be in the first three, which is where Rosehill sprints are won.

Our price $21.00 · SP $31.00 · Tim Clark

His Good track record reads 3:3-0-0, he has won first up at Rosehill under 58kg before and he has sprint wins at 1100m.

Our price $10.00 · SP $12.00 · N Rawiller

Sandpaper is the horse most likely to lead and Rosehill statistics strongly reward that position. He wins fresh, has trialled well for Nash Rawiller and ran close in a Group 2 here in March.

Our price $16.00 · SP $51.00 · A Adkins

The negatives are real: a low-percentage jockey booking, ordinary trials and a long break.

Our price $5.50 · SP $2.80 · Tommy Berry

He does have real positives: 54kg, barrier 3, an elite trainer-jockey pairing and Listed-placed 3yo form, so he is a genuine top-three chance.