Hastings tips and results

Our price $5.00 · SP $5.90 · L Sutherland

Second up she should be sharper, she drops in from barrier 9 to barrier 3, and 56.5kg is a help in the going. The reservations are the light-riding booking and a pattern of needing luck from the back half of the field, so she is safer at the each-way angle than for a straight-out win.

Our price $7.50 · SP $16.50 · G Rooke

The overlay of the race. Five of his six starts have been on heavy going, including a second at Avondale.

Our price $4.20 · SP $5.50 · Sam McNab

The most condition-proven runner in the race. The 2kg relief from his Hastings placing is significant on a holding surface, and his forward racing pattern suits 1200m in the wet. Low career win strike is the obvious reservation, but no rival matches his evidence for today's conditions.

Our price $3.20 · SP $5.20 · L J Allpress

The class edge is decisive.

Our price $6.00 · SP $14.30 · G Rooke

She is the only horse in the field who has won, and she did it in the exact conditions being faced: 1200m on Heavy 10. That win came after she was slowly away and hampered, leaving her last, so the win was achieved the hard way and the raw margin understates the effort. Barrier 1 and 54kg are further advantages on a holding surface.

Our price $7.50 · SP $8.50 · L Sutherland

Two starts, both on heavy, both competitive, and she placed when fresh at her only previous first-up attempt.

Our price $3.80 · SP $2.80 · W B Kennedy

He handles the wet with a win on Heavy 10 and a third on Heavy 9. The reservation is distance: he has never started at 1400m, and a Heavy 8 makes a 100m rise more taxing than it reads.

Our price $6.50 · SP $9.70 · C J Grylls

Grylls stays aboard from barrier 3. The negatives are real: a full grade rise off a maiden win, 59kg, and a quick backup.

Our price $4.50 · SP $9.80 · J Nishizuka

With 52kg — six and a half kilos less than the top contenders — on a holding surface, the weight relief is meaningful. She maps to be forward from barrier 5 on a track drying through the day.

Our price $6.50 · SP $20.30 · C Dell

His record on Heavy is 4:1-1-0 against nothing on Soft or Good, so the going is a positive rather than a hope. Barrier 2 and a proven on-pace pattern suit a slow-tempo wet mile with no genuine leader engaged.

Our price $7.00 · SP $3.80 · J K Riddell

Lightly raced and wet-track proven — his only win came on a Heavy 10 at Woodville, charging from 12th at the 400m, and his Heavy record reads 2:1-0-0. He was closing again for 5th at Ellerslie five days ago after being hampered at the start. Barrier 8 is friendlier than the wide gates he has been coping with. The reservation is real: 59.5kg and a habit of settling near last means a predicted slow tempo could leave him with too much to do late.

Our price $6.00 · SP $7.30 · L Sutherland

The knock is honest: one win from 18 starts and barrier 12 makes the mile awkward. A reliable each-way proposition in a race lacking a genuine leader.

Our price $6.00 · SP $5.70 · C M Lindsay

The best wet-tracker in the race on raw numbers, with 3 wins and 2 seconds from 5 Heavy starts and never a finish outside the placings on the going. He was beaten a whisker at this track on Heavy 8 over a sharp 1200m and now gets his correct trip of 1600m from a handy barrier 3.

Our price $6.50 · SP $4.70 · C J Grylls

Our price $5.00 · SP $2.70 · Sam McNab

The most reliable form line in the race relative to today's conditions. Phillyjean ran second in a Listed event at Taupo on Heavy 8 last start, beaten a length after her rider lost the whip, and her heavy-track record reads two starts for two placings. She has led or sat outright first in all three career starts, which is the profile that wins on rain-affected ground, and the 55kg is a genuine advantage.

Our price $7.50 · SP $12.10 · W B Kennedy

The last-start Ruakaka run reads poorly but he raced greenly and was carried wide, and he drops back to a more suitable Listed sprint from barrier one. He has a placing on heavy and his jockey knows him well.

Our price $5.00 · SP $11.00 · S T Collett

The best-balanced Heavy-track profile in the race. Today he drops to 54kg from barrier 4 at a distance where his record reads 3 starts for 2 wins.

Our price $8.00 · SP $6.50 · B Queiroz

The most reliable wet-track form line in the race. He has run top-two in seven of his eight Heavy-track starts and his 1200m record is 5:3-2-0. Fitness is a genuine edge here - he is 12 days between runs against a field containing seven first-uppers - and 54kg suits. The class rise and barrier 10 are the reasons he is not the top selection, but on a Heavy 8 where fitness and wet-track proof matter most, he is very hard to have out of the placings.

Our price $6.50 · SP $14.30 · C Dell

The most consistent horse in the race with seven top-three finishes from ten and a heavy-track record of 13 starts for 2 wins, 5 seconds and 1 third. He was second over 2100m on Heavy 10 at Otaki after leading, and third last start on Heavy 10 when held up near the 200m. Barrier 3 and a settled Dell partnership map him a soft trip. He converts placings to wins sparingly, which caps the confidence, but he will be there fighting.

Our price $8.00 · SP $14.20 · Toni Davies

Progressive mare with a live claim on the exact same track, distance and surface. She was third here on Heavy 8 three weeks ago after hitting the front at the 400m and being hampered near the 300m, and won on Heavy 10 at Wanganui before that. The 53kg is a genuine weapon on a testing surface, and her distance record of 8:2-1-4 confirms she stays. The jockey's cold run and barrier 10 are the reservations.