Ellerslie tips and results

Our price $4.20 · SP $11.00 · Michael McNab

He is improving, the jockey is outstanding at this track, and he could dictate a moderate pace. The wide barrier and the rise from maiden and Hcp 60 company hold him just behind Perfect Chaos on class.

Our price $6.50 · SP $6.00 · Sam McNab

A long break and the wide gate are issues, but she has won first up before and can get a handy position.

Our price $7.00 · SP $6.80 · Warren Kennedy

A class dropper out of Group 1 and Group 3 company into a maiden, and he has already shown he handles this course and trip on good ground when placed at the top level as a two-year-old. Last start he led here over 1200m and fought on for third, running a win-standard race. He gets in light at 57kg and can dictate. The stable is quiet and the draw is wide, but the ability is obvious.

Our price $8.00 · SP $15.10 · Craig Grylls

Raced three wide from a wide gate here last start and still finished off strongly for eighth - a better run than it reads on paper. From gate four he should settle much closer to the speed, and he has a solid 1200m time to his name. Grylls knows this track well.

Our price $4.20 · SP $3.20 · Michael McNab

Endless Night has improved at each of his three starts and his last-start fourth at Ellerslie was the strongest finishing effort in this field, running down everything bar three from near the tail. The mile is the query for a colt by a sprinting sire, but a moderately run race from barrier 1 should let him travel closer than usual. Clear top pick in a weak maiden.

Our price $5.50 · SP $4.60 · Warren Kennedy

Her earlier mile flop came on going she clearly disliked, so a Good 4 today removes that excuse.

Our price $7.50 · SP $6.00 · Craig Grylls

Licorice looks the best-placed on-pace runner in a race with no natural leader. She sat second in a strong Ellerslie maiden last start and held third, finishing ahead of Endless Night, and from barrier 3 she can dictate or stalk the speed over a trip that should suit a Savabeel mare.

Our price $9.00 · SP $11.00 · Joe Doyle

Superbus is the clock horse of the field. He returns fresh, which is the knock, but he has early speed, draws barrier 2 and could control the race from the front.

Our price $5.00 · SP $8.00 · Michael McNab

The talent is clear and the jockey booking is a positive. The concern is that today's drying Good surface and a steadily run race, from barrier ten, play against a wet-track backmarker.

Our price $11.00 · SP $16.00 · Joe Doyle

Ruach is an honest veteran who filled the minor placing behind Sweet Ice and Allaces last start and finished off faster than either. He gets 2kg off the winner for today, is a proven performer on Good ground and has won twice at Ellerslie. He rarely wins, which is why he is 15-1, but he keeps running into the placings at this grade and the first 2400m attempt is no concern on his staying style. Each-way value against the top three.

Our price $4.50 · SP $6.00 · Corentin Berge

Spellbound is the most accomplished horse in a field full of lightly raced maiden graduates. With a lone leader expected and a slow tempo, his handy racing style is a real asset at Ellerslie.

Our price $7.00 · SP $12.00 · Craig Grylls

Belle Rebelle is a classic value runner. She now drops into open 3yo company with 55kg, barrier 3 and Craig Grylls. The get-back style in a potentially slow race and her trainer's poor Ellerslie record are concerns, but she has the ability to beat most of these if the race is run at a genuine clip.

Our price $5.50 · SP $7.90 · Craig Grylls

Ocean Rules ran to a winning standard when third here on Good 4 last start, beaten under two lengths while carrying 56kg. Today's going matches, the weight is kind and the tempo looks moderate, so a handy position is realistic.

Our price $6.50 · SP $9.00 · Sam McNab

Produced arguably the best run in the race last start, charging from last to go down by a neck over 1400m here while giving weight to most of these. He is a three-time winner at Ellerslie and is fully effective on good ground, and the step to 1500m suits. The concern is the map: he gives away a start in a race where horses off the pace rarely win at this venue, and he draws wide again.

Our price $6.00 · SP $11.80 · Opie Bosson

Son Of Sun is the main danger.

Our price $13.00 · SP $33.10 · Masahiro Hashizume

Fly My Wey is the overlay.

Our price $6.00 · SP $3.70 · Sam McNab

Bethany Dee has been competitive in better grades, including a narrow second at Ellerslie over this trip. The drop to Bm65 is a clear help and the stable is in good form at the track. A wide draw and midfield-to-back run style leave her reliant on the pace, but she is a leading place chance and a genuine winning hope.

Our price $7.50 · SP $11.00 · Opie Bosson

Farewell To Eire is the one runner with real gate speed in a race that lacks a clear leader, which matters at Ellerslie where sprint leaders do best. She has Melbourne form in better grades and a top jockey. The risk is a wide gate and a first-up run after a long break, but the map is a strong plus.

Our price $3.60 · SP $2.25 · Joe Doyle

He is a consistent winner who has won at Ellerslie and is unbeaten on Good ground, including a strong recent victory. He led and stuck on for second last time and should be prominent again. The concern is top weight and a likely contested lead, but his class and track record make him the most probable winner.