Kembla Grange tips and results

Our price $2.00 · SP $2.90 · L P Beuzelin

Magic Blaze's only race start was a debut second on soft ground at Gosford, and the clock rates it well above what usually wins a maiden. Two Randwick trials since, one a close third on a soft track, suggest it is ready fresh. It should sit just behind the leaders from barrier 5 in a moderately run race, and the ground suits.

Our price $6.50 · SP $15.00 · Leeshelle Small

Chumpakidd is the most reliable horse in the race. It has run second in each of its last two starts at 1000m, both close to a winning standard, and the latest came on soft ground. It should race up outside the leader, and the 3kg claim takes it down to 56kg.

Our price $5.00 · SP $5.00 · Adam Farragher

The most reliable exposed horse in the race. He has two seconds from three starts here over the trip, handles soft going, and was beaten only a short head two runs back. Forget last start's Wyong run, where he was bumped, checked and ran wide.

Our price $6.50 · SP $9.00 · Jean Van Overmeire

His debut fifth at Hawkesbury on soft ground was better than it looks. He got back, was ridden along on the turn and kept going without quickening, and the run was not far off winning maiden standard. The wide draw is the main worry in a slowly run race, but he has the most upside of the horses who have raced.

Our price $4.50 · SP $3.70 · Jean Van Overmeire

A reliable placegetter who is fit and finishing her races strongly. She drops in weight against the geldings and should get a good spot from barrier 5. Her wet form is acceptable.

Our price $7.50 · SP $10.00 · Jeff Penza

Her two runs on soft ground were better than her finishing positions suggest, and both rate highly against this field. She was fourth at Nowra after settling at the tail, and she should improve second up over a longer trip. The wide draw and her habit of getting back are the risks.

Our price $4.30 · SP $5.00 · Louise Day

Topweight but brings the strongest last-start class form: a fighting second over 1400 at Class 2 level after leading in the straight. He drops to Class 1, maps to sit outside the leader from barrier four, and has been competitive at Kembla. The 60kg and a lack of good-track wins are negatives, but his form is hard to ignore.

Our price $5.00 · SP $4.00 · Jon Grisedale

A progressive gelding who has only ever raced at Kembla, with a win over this course and distance among his recent wins. He did too much early last start in a higher grade and still finished fifth. If he settles, he should be in the midfield spots that suit the mile here.

Our price $7.00 · SP $3.20 · Keagan Latham

She now comes in fit, drawn well and ridden by one of the best jockeys at the track.

Our price $9.00 · SP $17.00 · Jess Taylor

On wet ground her two city runs were as good as anything in the field. Her heavy-track third came after she was held up until the 300m, and she has the speed to sit handy behind a lone leader. She is the each-way value in the race.

Our price $13.00 · SP $31.00 · L P Beuzelin

An in-form galloper dropping back from a stronger grade with an excellent record over this trip and a solid soft-track profile. He won last start and maps to race on the speed, which suits the likely temperate tempo.