Flemington tips and results

Our price $4.50 · SP $2.80 · Mark Zahra

An unraced colt with the profile of a stable-prepared first starter: two encouraging jump-outs, both on soft ground, and Mark Zahra aboard throughout. No race experience is a genuine query, but there is nothing in the data to knock him and the wet-track trial form is a plus.

Our price $6.00 · SP $6.00 · Ben Melham

The pick of the unraced brigade on trial evidence — two wins from two jump-outs, the longer of them over 900m, which points to a filly with both speed and a little substance. The stable's recent strike rate is the concern, but the raw preparation form is the best of the first starters and she looks the one most likely to be in the finish.

Our price $8.00 · SP $13.00 · Harry Coffey

Two starts back he was strong late on a Soft 5 at Mornington in better company than this. The weight rise is real, but he is a genuine stayer who gets 2000m better than most of these and keeps producing honest, strong finishes.

Our price $10.00 · SP $11.00 · Blake Shinn

Politely Dun arrives in form, missing by the barest margins at Caulfield last start after a smart ride, and before that producing an eye-catching run on soft ground at Mornington. He has already won at this track over this trip and handles rain-affected going. The danger is that he settles too far back in a race likely to be run at an even tempo.

Our price $4.00 · SP $4.80 · Craig Williams

Fringilla is the form horse. Her all-the-way Geelong maiden win on soft ground was the standout performance in this field, running far faster than a winning standard, and she then held her own at Group 3 level in the Ethereal. She has the gate speed to be handy behind Mister Whiskers in what looks a slowly-run race, is drawn to save ground and handles wet tracks.

Our price $13.00 · SP $21.00 · Tommy Berry

Gilgeous is the overlay. That form is comfortably stronger than anything the maiden winners in this field have produced. He is a natural on-pace horse, which is what the race shape calls for, and he handles soft ground. The stable is cold, but at 23 he is far too big and worth an each-way play.

Our price $6.00 · SP $3.90 · James McDonald

He won first-up at Morphettville with authority, was a Listed second on soft ground last prep, and has James McDonald, who rides this track well. He drops from Group 3 company and has the class to be in the finish. The concern is barrier 13 and a very fast tempo, as he can race keenly; if he settles just off the speed he is a major threat.

Our price $8.00 · SP $10.00 · Thomas Stockdale

He was beaten only a neck in a Group 3 over 1200m last start and drops to Open company over his best trip, 1000m, where he has two wins from three. He is consistent and his recent runs are strong enough to be competitive here.

Our price $7.50 · SP $11.00 · Michael Dee

Parcae is unbeaten in two starts, both over 1000m, and she won on soft ground at Seymour last time when she sat handy and drew clear. She is lightly raced and still improving, and the inside draw helps her settle close. The obvious risk is the jump from BM62 company to Open grade, and the fast tempo could pressure her if she is used early.

Our price $5.50 · SP $6.00 · Jamie Mott

He was a close second in the St Leger last start and ran third over this Flemington 2800m in July on soft ground. He settles back, but the long straight suits and he has the class and stamina to be in the finish. The slow tempo is a slight concern, but his turn of foot is proven.

Our price $7.00 · SP $9.00 · Harry Coffey

The in-form lightweight won his last two starts over 2400m, leading both times. He maps to sit second or third in a slowly run race, which is an advantage. He is unproven at 2800m and rises from BM84 to BM96, but he carries just 53kg and his recent form is the strongest in the field. A bold showing is likely.

Our price $7.50 · SP $4.80 · Mark Zahra

A class mare with strong wet-track form, she was a close fifth in the Group 2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup last start after being held up. She has placed in Group 3 company over 2500m and handles soft ground. The query is 2800m, and she settles near last, but her turn of foot and class give her a strong place chance.

Our price $14.00 · SP $21.00 · Daniel Stackhouse

A 2800m Flemington placegetter in the Andrew Ramsden, he led and was run down late. Second-up today, he should strip fitter and maps to lead in a slowly run race. His wet form is sound and he carries a light weight. At 19-1 he is worth an each-way play; if he gets an easy lead, he could be hard to run down.

Our price $4.50 · SP $4.80 · James McDonald

St Lawrence is the form horse in the race. His Murray Bridge Cup win on heavy-ish ground was the strongest effort in this field over the past month, following a comfortable Flemington win where he sat fourth and ran away. The slow tempo and middle barrier let him settle midfield with cover and strike up the long straight, a shape he has thrived in. James McDonald is a significant upgrade and the Soft 5 is squarely in his range.

Our price $7.00 · SP $9.00 · Damian Lane

Al Duca is the value play because the race shape is built for him. He is the only natural leader and with a slow tempo expected he can dictate from barrier 2 and kick in the straight, exactly how he won here over 1800m. His Seymour Cup fourth was better than it looks after being caught wide early, and he was a close second at Flemington on Soft 7 in winter. Lane's record on him is a plus.

Our price $9.50 · SP $10.00 · Harry Coffey

A lightly weighted mare peaking at the right time. Proven on soft ground and a genuine track specialist here, she gets in on the minimum. The class rise and a wide draw are the concerns, but she profiles as the sort of progressive light weight that often runs a big Cup.

Our price $15.00 · SP $21.00 · Wayne Lordan

She has an excellent staying record and handles give in the ground.

Our price $6.50 · SP $5.00 · Damian Lane

A talented but tempo-dependent colt. Mr Natural is a proven wet-tracker whose Geelong maiden win on soft ground was good enough to win this race, and Damian Lane has been booked specifically. The problem is the map: he will settle last in a race likely to be run at a slow tempo behind a lone leader, which means he must make up a lot of ground late.

Our price $5.00 · SP $7.00 · Tommy Berry

She is a consistent, tough mare whose Kosciuszko run on a soft track first up reads very well, closing hard from four wide. She likes rain-affected ground, has a good second-up record and gets in with only 55kg from a handy draw. The unknown is 1400m, but she raced strongly at 1300m in wins and should sit midfield with cover.

Our price $7.50 · SP $5.50 · William Pike

She was the clear second in the Tristarc and now drops a grade on ground she loves; she has placed in every start on soft. The 3kg swing with Shadhavar helps close the gap, but she settles back and the moderate pace may not suit her.

Our price $10.00 · SP $13.00 · Ethan Brown

On a soft Flemington track, her course-and-distance record of three wins from six is hard to ignore. She won the Rose Of Kingston here in the wet, beating Gold Medallist and Betwitchery, and her Randwick run on a firm track can be forgiven because she was held up.

Our price $3.20 · SP $2.40 · Billy Egan

Buccleuch has won six of eleven, handles wet ground as well as anything here, and his last-start Caulfield win under 61kg came against a cluster of today's rivals. A moderate tempo and his get-back style are the risks, but the long Flemington straight suits and he has already shown he can win from midfield.

Our price $7.00 · SP $6.00 · Zac Lloyd

Everain is lightly raced with a high strike rate and arrives second-up, a stage at which he has placed both times.

Our price $15.00 · SP $16.00 · Ben Allen

He was beaten only a length and a half by Buccleuch last start and now meets him on much better weight terms.